# Budget 2026: 28 October 2026 url: https://whereyourmoneygoes.co.uk/budget/ updated: 29 September 2026 licence: Our words, analysis, charts and derived calculations: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), credit [Tekstak Ltd](https://tek-stak.co.uk). Figures: each source's own licence, listed under Sources. publisher: [Tekstak Ltd](https://tek-stak.co.uk) # Budget 2026: 28 October 2026 Last updated 29 September 2026. Figures refresh every night. [How each figure is worked out](/methodology/). **Budget 2026** is on **28 October 2026**. The Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its forecast the same day. The last fiscal event was Spring Forecast 2026 on 3 March 2026. The latest Treasury documents are [Supporting documents for Budget 2025](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2025). Figure as of 26 November 2025. Source: [HM Treasury](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2025). ## Key figures - 28 Oct 2026Budget 2026 OBR forecast the same day - 3Announced changes the Budget still has to set or cost - 13Changes already due to start within a year of it - £21.7bnMargin against the current budget rule at the last assessment November 2025 As of 26 November 2025 Source: [Office for Budget Responsibility](https://obr.uk/download/november-2025-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-charts-and-tables-chapter-7/). ## Fiscal events: past and next - **30 Oct 2024**[Autumn Budget 2024](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/autumn-budget-2024) - **26 Mar 2025**[Spring Statement 2025](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-spring-statement-2025) - **26 Nov 2025**[Budget 2025](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2025) - **3 Mar 2026**[Spring Forecast 2026](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/spring-forecast-2026-speech). An OBR forecast and a statement. The Treasury published no scorecard; its measures are in the OBR's policy measures database. - **28 Oct 2026**[Budget 2026](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/chancellor-letter-to-the-treasury-select-committee-tsc-budget-2026-date) (scheduled). Date set in the Chancellor's letter to the Treasury Committee of 31 July 2026. The OBR publishes its forecast the same day. ## What Budget 2026 has to decide Some announced changes are waiting on the next Budget: rates not yet set, or measures announced between fiscal events that the OBR has not yet certified. Announced changes the next Budget sets or costs - [Fuel duty: the 5p cut ends](/announced-tax-and-benefit-changes/#change-fuel-duty-2027) Starts1 Jan 2027 The May 2026 extension to 31 December 2026 has not yet been costed; the Treasury says final rates and costings come at Budget 2026. - [Extra business rates cut for pubs, clubs and live music venues](/announced-tax-and-benefit-changes/#change-pubs-business-rates-2027) Starts1 Apr 2027 The government says around £100 million a year and that a typical pub saves about £1,100. Not yet certified by the OBR. - [State Pension rise under the triple lock](/announced-tax-and-benefit-changes/#change-state-pension-2027) Starts6 Apr 2027 The rise is part of the OBR's forecast rather than a scored policy decision. The rate is not yet known. ## The fiscal rules going in Since 2026 the OBR assesses the government’s fiscal rules once a year, at the Budget. The table shows the margin by which the latest forecast met each rule at its last assessment: a larger margin gives the Chancellor more room before a rule would be broken. The OBR’s newest forecast (March 2026) did not re-assess the rules. | Rule and forecast | Margin, £bn | Margin, % of GDP | Chance of meeting it | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current budget to be in surplus: March 2025 forecastDetails | £9.9bn | 0.28% | 54% | | Margin, % of GDP0.28%Chance of meeting it54% | | | | | Current budget to be in surplus: November 2025 pre-measures forecastDetails | £4.2bn | 0.12% | 52% | | Margin, % of GDP0.12%Chance of meeting it52% | | | | | Current budget to be in surplus: November 2025 forecastDetails | £21.7bn | 0.62% | 59% | | Margin, % of GDP0.62%Chance of meeting it59% | | | | | Current budget to be in surplus: Memo: excluding fuel duty risesDetails | £17.8bn | 0.51% | — | | Margin, % of GDP0.51%Chance of meeting it— | | | | | Change in public sector net financial liabilities: March 2025 forecastDetails | £15.1bn | 0.42% | 51% | | Margin, % of GDP0.42%Chance of meeting it51% | | | | | Change in public sector net financial liabilities: November 2025 pre-measures forecastDetails | £11.1bn | 0.31% | 51% | | Margin, % of GDP0.31%Chance of meeting it51% | | | | | Change in public sector net financial liabilities: November 2025 forecastDetails | £24.4bn | 0.68% | 52% | | Margin, % of GDP0.68%Chance of meeting it52% | | | | | Change in public sector net financial liabilities: Memo: excluding fuel duty risesDetails | £20.7bn | 0.58% | — | | Margin, % of GDP0.58%Chance of meeting it— | | | | | Welfare cap: specified welfare spending: March 2025 forecastDetails | £13.5bn | — | — | | Margin, % of GDP—Chance of meeting it— | | | | | Welfare cap: specified welfare spending: November 2025 forecastDetails | £1.9bn | — | — | | Margin, % of GDP—Chance of meeting it— | | | | Forecast: Office for Budget Responsibility, Economic and fiscal outlook, November 2025, published 26 November 2025 ## What happens to this site on Budget day On the day, the Treasury publishes its scorecard and costings, and the OBR its forecast and policy measures database. The nightly update reads the OBR files and the Treasury’s supporting documents: the welfare forecast gains a new edition, the older one is labelled superseded, the long-term and tax pages move to the new forecast, and every new measure appears in the [scorecard table](/announced-tax-and-benefit-changes/#scorecard). Measures with a start date are then added to the dated list by hand, each with its source. | What | Publisher | When it updates here | | --- | --- | --- | | Every scored measure and its costing | OBR policy measures database | The night it is published | | Welfare spending forecast | OBR Economic and fiscal outlook | The night after the Budget | | Fiscal rules and headroom | OBR Economic and fiscal outlook | The night after the Budget | | Dated list of changes | Treasury documents and HMRC impact notes | Checked by hand | ## What these figures do and don't show - A fiscal event can change any announced measure, including ones already legislated. - Headroom is measured against a forecast. The OBR publishes the probability of meeting each rule because small changes in the economy move the margin by billions. - Changes announced between Budgets are shown with the government’s own estimate until the OBR certifies a costing. ## Sources for this page | Source | Publisher | Figures as of | Updated | Licence | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Budget 2025: supporting documents (Table 4.1 policy decisions, Table 4.2, Policy costings)](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2025) | HM Treasury | 26 November 2025 | annual | [Open Government Licence v3.0](https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/) | | [Economic and fiscal outlook, November 2025: performance against the fiscal rules](https://obr.uk/download/november-2025-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-charts-and-tables-chapter-7/) | Office for Budget Responsibility | 26 November 2025 | annual | [Open Government Licence v3.0](https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/) | Each source's figures are used under the licence shown. Our own words, analysis, charts and derived calculations are ours, under [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). ## Related pages - [Next in this section: Longer-term pressures: spending, tax and debt over fifty years](https://whereyourmoneygoes.co.uk/long-term-public-finances/) - [Is the UK tax burden the highest it has ever been?](https://whereyourmoneygoes.co.uk/the-tax-burden/) - [What do frozen tax thresholds cost me?](https://whereyourmoneygoes.co.uk/frozen-thresholds/) - [What taxes do I pay in the UK, and how much does each raise?](https://whereyourmoneygoes.co.uk/all-uk-taxes/) ## More from this publisher - [UK tax calculators](https://howlongisit.co.uk) Published by [Tekstak Ltd](https://tek-stak.co.uk). Our words, analysis, charts and derived calculations: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), credit [Tekstak Ltd](https://tek-stak.co.uk). The figures belong to the publishers listed under Sources and are used under their licences. Figures last updated 29 September 2026.