{
 "id": "long-term",
 "title": "Long-term public finance projections",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-29T01:00:03.501Z",
 "geography": {
  "code": "K02000001",
  "name": "United Kingdom"
 },
 "units": "per cent of GDP",
 "sources": [
  {
   "id": "obr-frs-july-2026",
   "name": "Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2026",
   "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility",
   "url": "https://obr.uk/frs/fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-july-2026/",
   "file": null,
   "published": "2026-07-07",
   "edition": "July 2026",
   "licence": "ogl-3"
  }
 ],
 "data": {
  "edition": "july-2026",
  "label": "Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2026",
  "published": "2026-07-07",
  "page": "https://obr.uk/frs/fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-july-2026/",
  "spending": [
   {
    "id": "health",
    "label": "Health",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 8.35,
     "2030-31": 8.36,
     "2035-36": 8.96,
     "2045-46": 10.07,
     "2055-56": 11.16,
     "2065-66": 12.21,
     "2075-76": 13.46
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "adult-social-care",
    "label": "Adult social care",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 1.24,
     "2030-31": 1.17,
     "2035-36": 1.21,
     "2045-46": 1.34,
     "2055-56": 1.5,
     "2065-66": 1.65,
     "2075-76": 1.83
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "education",
    "label": "Education",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 4.48,
     "2030-31": 4.32,
     "2035-36": 3.97,
     "2045-46": 3.58,
     "2055-56": 3.62,
     "2065-66": 3.56,
     "2075-76": 3.4
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "state-pension",
    "label": "State pension",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 4.79,
     "2030-31": 4.98,
     "2035-36": 5.43,
     "2045-46": 5.78,
     "2055-56": 6.67,
     "2065-66": 7.88,
     "2075-76": 8.61
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "other-welfare-benefits",
    "label": "Other welfare benefits",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 6.11,
     "2030-31": 6.23,
     "2035-36": 6.07,
     "2045-46": 6.07,
     "2055-56": 6.19,
     "2065-66": 6.25,
     "2075-76": 6.39
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "public-service-pensions",
    "label": "Public service pensions",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 1.38,
     "2030-31": 1.16,
     "2035-36": 1.06,
     "2045-46": 0.86,
     "2055-56": 0.81,
     "2065-66": 0.89,
     "2075-76": 0.87
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "total-age-related-spending",
    "label": "Total age-related spending",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 26.34,
     "2030-31": 26.21,
     "2035-36": 26.7,
     "2045-46": 27.71,
     "2055-56": 29.96,
     "2065-66": 32.43,
     "2075-76": 34.55
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "defence",
    "label": "Defence",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 2.4,
     "2030-31": 2.75,
     "2035-36": 3.5,
     "2045-46": 3.5,
     "2055-56": 3.5,
     "2065-66": 3.5,
     "2075-76": 3.5
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "net-zero-transition-spending",
    "label": "Net zero transition spending",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 0.18,
     "2030-31": 0.27,
     "2035-36": 0.46,
     "2045-46": 0.16,
     "2055-56": 0,
     "2065-66": 0,
     "2075-76": 0
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "other-current",
    "label": "Other current",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 8.36,
     "2030-31": 7.95,
     "2035-36": 7.95,
     "2045-46": 7.95,
     "2055-56": 7.95,
     "2065-66": 7.95,
     "2075-76": 7.95
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "other-capital",
    "label": "Other capital",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 3.22,
     "2030-31": 2.64,
     "2035-36": 2.64,
     "2045-46": 2.64,
     "2055-56": 2.64,
     "2065-66": 2.64,
     "2075-76": 2.64
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "total-primary-spending",
    "label": "Total primary spending",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 40.5,
     "2030-31": 39.83,
     "2035-36": 41.26,
     "2045-46": 41.97,
     "2055-56": 44.06,
     "2065-66": 46.53,
     "2075-76": 48.65
    }
   }
  ],
  "receipts": [
   {
    "id": "income-tax",
    "label": "Income tax",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 10.85,
     "2030-31": 11.86,
     "2035-36": 11.81,
     "2045-46": 11.89,
     "2055-56": 12.1,
     "2065-66": 12.22,
     "2075-76": 12.13
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "nics",
    "label": "NICs",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 6.75,
     "2030-31": 6.83,
     "2035-36": 6.69,
     "2045-46": 6.68,
     "2055-56": 6.66,
     "2065-66": 6.61,
     "2075-76": 6.49
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "vat",
    "label": "VAT",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 6.71,
     "2030-31": 6.95,
     "2035-36": 6.94,
     "2045-46": 6.99,
     "2055-56": 7.12,
     "2065-66": 7.29,
     "2075-76": 7.32
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "corporation-tax",
    "label": "Corporation tax",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 3.28,
     "2030-31": 3.37,
     "2035-36": 3.37,
     "2045-46": 3.37,
     "2055-56": 3.37,
     "2065-66": 3.37,
     "2075-76": 3.37
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "capital-taxes",
    "label": "Capital taxes",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 1.7,
     "2030-31": 2.3,
     "2035-36": 2.38,
     "2045-46": 2.59,
     "2055-56": 2.79,
     "2065-66": 2.95,
     "2075-76": 3.12
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "net-zero-affected-taxes",
    "label": "Net zero-affected taxes",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 1.62,
     "2030-31": 1.57,
     "2035-36": 1.22,
     "2045-46": 0.87,
     "2055-56": 0.69,
     "2065-66": 0.59,
     "2075-76": 0.55
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "other-receipts",
    "label": "Other receipts",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 8.17,
     "2030-31": 8.43,
     "2035-36": 8.45,
     "2045-46": 8.39,
     "2055-56": 8.36,
     "2065-66": 8.35,
     "2075-76": 8.35
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "total-primary-receipts",
    "label": "Total primary receipts",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 39.09,
     "2030-31": 41.31,
     "2035-36": 40.84,
     "2045-46": 40.78,
     "2055-56": 41.08,
     "2065-66": 41.38,
     "2075-76": 41.32
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "interest-and-dividends",
    "label": "Interest and dividends",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 1.35,
     "2030-31": 1.41,
     "2035-36": 1.51,
     "2045-46": 1.37,
     "2055-56": 1.32,
     "2065-66": 1.31,
     "2075-76": 1.35
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "total-receipts",
    "label": "Total receipts",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 40.44,
     "2030-31": 42.72,
     "2035-36": 42.35,
     "2045-46": 42.15,
     "2055-56": 42.4,
     "2065-66": 42.7,
     "2075-76": 42.66
    }
   }
  ],
  "aggregates": [
   {
    "id": "public-sector-current-receipts",
    "label": "Public sector current receipts",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 40.44,
     "2030-31": 42.72,
     "2035-36": 42.35,
     "2045-46": 42.15,
     "2055-56": 42.4,
     "2065-66": 42.7,
     "2075-76": 42.66
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "total-managed-expenditure",
    "label": "Total managed expenditure",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 44.79,
     "2030-31": 44.34,
     "2035-36": 46.58,
     "2045-46": 48.38,
     "2055-56": 51.83,
     "2065-66": 56.53,
     "2075-76": 62.19
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "public-sector-net-borrowing",
    "label": "Public sector net borrowing",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 4.35,
     "2030-31": 1.62,
     "2035-36": 4.22,
     "2045-46": 6.23,
     "2055-56": 9.44,
     "2065-66": 13.83,
     "2075-76": 19.53
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "public-sector-net-debt",
    "label": "Public sector net debt",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 94.31,
     "2030-31": 95.05,
     "2035-36": 97.82,
     "2045-46": 117.13,
     "2055-56": 153.88,
     "2065-66": 214.91,
     "2075-76": 300.41
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "memo-primary-spending",
    "label": "Memo: Primary spending",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 40.5,
     "2030-31": 39.83,
     "2035-36": 41.26,
     "2045-46": 41.97,
     "2055-56": 44.06,
     "2065-66": 46.53,
     "2075-76": 48.65
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "memo-primary-receipts",
    "label": "Memo: Primary receipts",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 39.09,
     "2030-31": 41.31,
     "2035-36": 40.84,
     "2045-46": 40.78,
     "2055-56": 41.08,
     "2065-66": 41.38,
     "2075-76": 41.32
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "memo-primary-deficit",
    "label": "Memo: Primary deficit",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 1.41,
     "2030-31": -1.48,
     "2035-36": 0.42,
     "2045-46": 1.19,
     "2055-56": 2.97,
     "2065-66": 5.15,
     "2075-76": 7.33
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "memo-net-interest",
    "label": "Memo: Net interest",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 2.95,
     "2030-31": 3.11,
     "2035-36": 3.81,
     "2045-46": 5.04,
     "2055-56": 6.46,
     "2065-66": 8.68,
     "2075-76": 12.2
    }
   }
  ],
  "debtScenarios": [
   {
    "id": "baseline",
    "label": "Baseline",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 94.3,
     "2026-27": 94.8,
     "2027-28": 95.7,
     "2028-29": 96.3,
     "2029-30": 96.1,
     "2030-31": 95.1,
     "2031-32": 94.8,
     "2032-33": 94.8,
     "2033-34": 95.4,
     "2034-35": 96.4,
     "2035-36": 97.8,
     "2036-37": 99.1,
     "2037-38": 100.7,
     "2038-39": 102.2,
     "2039-40": 103.9,
     "2040-41": 105.8,
     "2041-42": 107.8,
     "2042-43": 109.9,
     "2043-44": 112.2,
     "2044-45": 114.6,
     "2045-46": 117.1,
     "2046-47": 119.8,
     "2047-48": 122.7,
     "2048-49": 125.9,
     "2049-50": 129.2,
     "2050-51": 132.8,
     "2051-52": 136.5,
     "2052-53": 140.5,
     "2053-54": 144.7,
     "2054-55": 149.1,
     "2055-56": 153.9,
     "2056-57": 158.9,
     "2057-58": 164.1,
     "2058-59": 169.6,
     "2059-60": 175.3,
     "2060-61": 181.2,
     "2061-62": 187.4,
     "2062-63": 193.9,
     "2063-64": 200.7,
     "2064-65": 207.7,
     "2065-66": 214.9,
     "2066-67": 222.4,
     "2067-68": 230.1,
     "2068-69": 237.9,
     "2069-70": 246.1,
     "2070-71": 254.4,
     "2071-72": 263.1,
     "2072-73": 272.2,
     "2073-74": 281.4,
     "2074-75": 290.7,
     "2075-76": 300.4
    },
    "group": "debt dynamics scenarios"
   },
   {
    "id": "higher-medium-term-primary-deficit",
    "label": "Higher medium-term primary deficit",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 94.3,
     "2026-27": 96.1,
     "2027-28": 97.9,
     "2028-29": 99.8,
     "2029-30": 101.5,
     "2030-31": 103.1,
     "2031-32": 105.4,
     "2032-33": 108.3,
     "2033-34": 111.7,
     "2034-35": 115.8,
     "2035-36": 120.3,
     "2036-37": 124.9,
     "2037-38": 129.6,
     "2038-39": 134.5,
     "2039-40": 139.7,
     "2040-41": 145.1,
     "2041-42": 150.7,
     "2042-43": 156.4,
     "2043-44": 162.4,
     "2044-45": 168.5,
     "2045-46": 174.8,
     "2046-47": 181.3,
     "2047-48": 188,
     "2048-49": 195,
     "2049-50": 202.3,
     "2050-51": 209.8,
     "2051-52": 217.5,
     "2052-53": 225.5,
     "2053-54": 233.8,
     "2054-55": 242.4,
     "2055-56": 251.2,
     "2056-57": 260.4,
     "2057-58": 269.9,
     "2058-59": 279.6,
     "2059-60": 289.6,
     "2060-61": 299.8,
     "2061-62": 310.3,
     "2062-63": 321.2,
     "2063-64": 332.4,
     "2064-65": 343.8,
     "2065-66": 355.5,
     "2066-67": 367.4,
     "2067-68": 379.6,
     "2068-69": 391.8,
     "2069-70": 404.3,
     "2070-71": 417.1,
     "2071-72": 430.2,
     "2072-73": 443.7,
     "2073-74": 457.3,
     "2074-75": 471.2,
     "2075-76": 485.6
    },
    "group": "debt dynamics scenarios"
   },
   {
    "id": "higher-medium-term-primary-deficit-plus-shocks",
    "label": "Higher medium-term primary deficit plus shocks",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 94.3,
     "2026-27": 96.1,
     "2027-28": 97.9,
     "2028-29": 99.8,
     "2029-30": 101.5,
     "2030-31": 103.1,
     "2031-32": 105.4,
     "2032-33": 108.3,
     "2033-34": 111.7,
     "2034-35": 115.8,
     "2035-36": 130.3,
     "2036-37": 134.9,
     "2037-38": 139.6,
     "2038-39": 144.5,
     "2039-40": 149.7,
     "2040-41": 155.1,
     "2041-42": 160.7,
     "2042-43": 166.4,
     "2043-44": 172.4,
     "2044-45": 188.5,
     "2045-46": 194.8,
     "2046-47": 201.3,
     "2047-48": 208,
     "2048-49": 215,
     "2049-50": 222.3,
     "2050-51": 229.8,
     "2051-52": 237.5,
     "2052-53": 245.5,
     "2053-54": 263.8,
     "2054-55": 272.4,
     "2055-56": 281.2,
     "2056-57": 290.4,
     "2057-58": 299.9,
     "2058-59": 309.6,
     "2059-60": 319.6,
     "2060-61": 329.8,
     "2061-62": 340.3,
     "2062-63": 361.2,
     "2063-64": 372.4,
     "2064-65": 383.8,
     "2065-66": 395.5,
     "2066-67": 407.4,
     "2067-68": 419.6,
     "2068-69": 431.8,
     "2069-70": 444.3,
     "2070-71": 457.1,
     "2071-72": 480.2,
     "2072-73": 493.7,
     "2073-74": 507.3,
     "2074-75": 521.2,
     "2075-76": 535.6
    },
    "group": "debt dynamics scenarios"
   },
   {
    "id": "higher-medium-term-primary-deficit-shocks-and-responsive-interest-rate",
    "label": "Higher medium-term primary deficit, shocks and responsive interest rate",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 94.3,
     "2026-27": 96.1,
     "2027-28": 97.9,
     "2028-29": 99.8,
     "2029-30": 101.5,
     "2030-31": 103.1,
     "2031-32": 105.4,
     "2032-33": 108.3,
     "2033-34": 111.7,
     "2034-35": 115.9,
     "2035-36": 131,
     "2036-37": 136.3,
     "2037-38": 141.8,
     "2038-39": 147.5,
     "2039-40": 153.5,
     "2040-41": 159.8,
     "2041-42": 166.5,
     "2042-43": 173.4,
     "2043-44": 180.6,
     "2044-45": 198.8,
     "2045-46": 207.3,
     "2046-47": 216.2,
     "2047-48": 225.5,
     "2048-49": 235.4,
     "2049-50": 245.8,
     "2050-51": 256.8,
     "2051-52": 268.3,
     "2052-53": 280.5,
     "2053-54": 304.1,
     "2054-55": 318.5,
     "2055-56": 333.8,
     "2056-57": 349.9,
     "2057-58": 367.1,
     "2058-59": 385.3,
     "2059-60": 404.6,
     "2060-61": 425,
     "2061-62": 446.8,
     "2062-63": 480.9,
     "2063-64": 506.6,
     "2064-65": 534,
     "2065-66": 563.3,
     "2066-67": 594.6,
     "2067-68": 627.9,
     "2068-69": 663.5,
     "2069-70": 701.6,
     "2070-71": 742.6,
     "2071-72": 797.9,
     "2072-73": 846.8,
     "2073-74": 899.5,
     "2074-75": 956.6,
     "2075-76": 1018.9
    },
    "group": "debt dynamics scenarios"
   },
   {
    "id": "higher-population",
    "label": "Higher population",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 94.3,
     "2026-27": 94.8,
     "2027-28": 95.7,
     "2028-29": 96.3,
     "2029-30": 96.1,
     "2030-31": 95.1,
     "2031-32": 94.7,
     "2032-33": 94.8,
     "2033-34": 95.3,
     "2034-35": 96.3,
     "2035-36": 97.8,
     "2036-37": 99.1,
     "2037-38": 100.8,
     "2038-39": 102.4,
     "2039-40": 104.2,
     "2040-41": 106.3,
     "2041-42": 108.6,
     "2042-43": 111.1,
     "2043-44": 113.8,
     "2044-45": 116.7,
     "2045-46": 119.8,
     "2046-47": 123.2,
     "2047-48": 126.8,
     "2048-49": 130.7,
     "2049-50": 135,
     "2050-51": 139.5,
     "2051-52": 144.2,
     "2052-53": 149.3,
     "2053-54": 154.6,
     "2054-55": 160.3,
     "2055-56": 166.3,
     "2056-57": 172.7,
     "2057-58": 179.3,
     "2058-59": 186.2,
     "2059-60": 193.4,
     "2060-61": 200.8,
     "2061-62": 208.5,
     "2062-63": 216.5,
     "2063-64": 224.8,
     "2064-65": 233.3,
     "2065-66": 242.1,
     "2066-67": 251,
     "2067-68": 259.9,
     "2068-69": 268.6,
     "2069-70": 277.5,
     "2070-71": 286.8,
     "2071-72": 296.4,
     "2072-73": 306.5,
     "2073-74": 316.9,
     "2074-75": 327.7,
     "2075-76": 339
    },
    "group": "higher population scenario"
   },
   {
    "id": "higher-productivity",
    "label": "Higher productivity",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 94.3,
     "2026-27": 94.8,
     "2027-28": 95.7,
     "2028-29": 96.3,
     "2029-30": 96.1,
     "2030-31": 95.1,
     "2031-32": 94.8,
     "2032-33": 94.8,
     "2033-34": 95.3,
     "2034-35": 96.1,
     "2035-36": 97.3,
     "2036-37": 98.2,
     "2037-38": 99.3,
     "2038-39": 100.1,
     "2039-40": 101,
     "2040-41": 101.8,
     "2041-42": 102.7,
     "2042-43": 103.5,
     "2043-44": 104.4,
     "2044-45": 105.3,
     "2045-46": 106.2,
     "2046-47": 107.1,
     "2047-48": 108.1,
     "2048-49": 109.2,
     "2049-50": 110.3,
     "2050-51": 111.6,
     "2051-52": 112.9,
     "2052-53": 114.4,
     "2053-54": 115.9,
     "2054-55": 117.6,
     "2055-56": 119.4,
     "2056-57": 121.3,
     "2057-58": 123.4,
     "2058-59": 125.5,
     "2059-60": 127.8,
     "2060-61": 130.2,
     "2061-62": 132.7,
     "2062-63": 135.3,
     "2063-64": 138.1,
     "2064-65": 141,
     "2065-66": 144.1,
     "2066-67": 147.2,
     "2067-68": 150.5,
     "2068-69": 153.9,
     "2069-70": 157.4,
     "2070-71": 161.1,
     "2071-72": 165,
     "2072-73": 169.1,
     "2073-74": 173.3,
     "2074-75": 177.5,
     "2075-76": 181.9
    },
    "group": "productivity scenarios"
   },
   {
    "id": "lower-productivity",
    "label": "Lower productivity",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 94.3,
     "2026-27": 94.8,
     "2027-28": 95.7,
     "2028-29": 96.3,
     "2029-30": 96.1,
     "2030-31": 95.1,
     "2031-32": 94.9,
     "2032-33": 95.2,
     "2033-34": 96.2,
     "2034-35": 97.8,
     "2035-36": 100,
     "2036-37": 102.4,
     "2037-38": 105.3,
     "2038-39": 108.5,
     "2039-40": 112.3,
     "2040-41": 116.6,
     "2041-42": 121.5,
     "2042-43": 126.9,
     "2043-44": 132.8,
     "2044-45": 139.1,
     "2045-46": 146.1,
     "2046-47": 153.6,
     "2047-48": 161.7,
     "2048-49": 170.4,
     "2049-50": 179.8,
     "2050-51": 189.9,
     "2051-52": 200.6,
     "2052-53": 212,
     "2053-54": 224.1,
     "2054-55": 237.1,
     "2055-56": 250.8,
     "2056-57": 265.3,
     "2057-58": 280.6,
     "2058-59": 296.6,
     "2059-60": 313.6,
     "2060-61": 331.2,
     "2061-62": 349.8,
     "2062-63": 369.2,
     "2063-64": 389.6,
     "2064-65": 410.9,
     "2065-66": 433.1,
     "2066-67": 456.2,
     "2067-68": 480.1,
     "2068-69": 504.8,
     "2069-70": 530.5,
     "2070-71": 557.1,
     "2071-72": 584.8,
     "2072-73": 613.5,
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     "2074-75": 673.9,
     "2075-76": 705.9
    },
    "group": "productivity scenarios"
   },
   {
    "id": "higher-productivity-with-constant-primary-spending-to-gdp-assumption",
    "label": "Higher productivity with constant primary-spending-to-GDP assumption",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 94.3,
     "2026-27": 94.8,
     "2027-28": 95.7,
     "2028-29": 96.3,
     "2029-30": 96.1,
     "2030-31": 95.1,
     "2031-32": 94.8,
     "2032-33": 94.8,
     "2033-34": 95.3,
     "2034-35": 96.2,
     "2035-36": 97.5,
     "2036-37": 98.6,
     "2037-38": 99.9,
     "2038-39": 101,
     "2039-40": 102.4,
     "2040-41": 103.8,
     "2041-42": 105.4,
     "2042-43": 107,
     "2043-44": 108.8,
     "2044-45": 110.7,
     "2045-46": 112.8,
     "2046-47": 115,
     "2047-48": 117.3,
     "2048-49": 119.9,
     "2049-50": 122.7,
     "2050-51": 125.7,
     "2051-52": 128.8,
     "2052-53": 132.1,
     "2053-54": 135.7,
     "2054-55": 139.5,
     "2055-56": 143.5,
     "2056-57": 147.8,
     "2057-58": 152.2,
     "2058-59": 156.9,
     "2059-60": 161.8,
     "2060-61": 166.9,
     "2061-62": 172.2,
     "2062-63": 177.7,
     "2063-64": 183.5,
     "2064-65": 189.5,
     "2065-66": 195.7,
     "2066-67": 202.1,
     "2067-68": 208.7,
     "2068-69": 215.5,
     "2069-70": 222.4,
     "2070-71": 229.6,
     "2071-72": 237,
     "2072-73": 244.7,
     "2073-74": 252.6,
     "2074-75": 260.4,
     "2075-76": 268.7
    },
    "group": "productivity scenarios"
   },
   {
    "id": "cpi-uprating-of-personal-tax-thresholds",
    "label": "CPI uprating of personal tax thresholds",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 94.3,
     "2026-27": 94.8,
     "2027-28": 95.7,
     "2028-29": 96.3,
     "2029-30": 96.1,
     "2030-31": 95.1,
     "2031-32": 94.7,
     "2032-33": 94.6,
     "2033-34": 94.9,
     "2034-35": 95.5,
     "2035-36": 96.5,
     "2036-37": 97.2,
     "2037-38": 98,
     "2038-39": 98.6,
     "2039-40": 99.3,
     "2040-41": 100,
     "2041-42": 100.7,
     "2042-43": 101.4,
     "2043-44": 102,
     "2044-45": 102.7,
     "2045-46": 103.3,
     "2046-47": 104,
     "2047-48": 104.7,
     "2048-49": 105.4,
     "2049-50": 106.2,
     "2050-51": 107.1,
     "2051-52": 108,
     "2052-53": 108.9,
     "2053-54": 109.9,
     "2054-55": 111,
     "2055-56": 112.2,
     "2056-57": 113.5,
     "2057-58": 114.9,
     "2058-59": 116.3,
     "2059-60": 117.8,
     "2060-61": 119.4,
     "2061-62": 121,
     "2062-63": 122.7,
     "2063-64": 124.5,
     "2064-65": 126.4,
     "2065-66": 128.3,
     "2066-67": 130.4,
     "2067-68": 132.4,
     "2068-69": 134.5,
     "2069-70": 136.7,
     "2070-71": 139,
     "2071-72": 141.5,
     "2072-73": 144,
     "2073-74": 146.7,
     "2074-75": 149.1,
     "2075-76": 151.9
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    "group": "alternative long-term policy assumption scenarios"
   },
   {
    "id": "no-extra-cost-pressures-in-health-spending",
    "label": "No extra cost pressures in health spending",
    "values": {
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     "2026-27": 94.8,
     "2027-28": 95.7,
     "2028-29": 96.3,
     "2029-30": 96.1,
     "2030-31": 95.1,
     "2031-32": 94.7,
     "2032-33": 94.6,
     "2033-34": 94.9,
     "2034-35": 95.6,
     "2035-36": 96.6,
     "2036-37": 97.4,
     "2037-38": 98.3,
     "2038-39": 99.1,
     "2039-40": 100,
     "2040-41": 101,
     "2041-42": 102.1,
     "2042-43": 103.1,
     "2043-44": 104.2,
     "2044-45": 105.3,
     "2045-46": 106.4,
     "2046-47": 107.6,
     "2047-48": 108.9,
     "2048-49": 110.3,
     "2049-50": 111.8,
     "2050-51": 113.4,
     "2051-52": 115.1,
     "2052-53": 116.9,
     "2053-54": 118.8,
     "2054-55": 120.9,
     "2055-56": 123,
     "2056-57": 125.4,
     "2057-58": 127.8,
     "2058-59": 130.4,
     "2059-60": 133.1,
     "2060-61": 135.8,
     "2061-62": 138.8,
     "2062-63": 141.8,
     "2063-64": 145,
     "2064-65": 148.3,
     "2065-66": 151.7,
     "2066-67": 155.3,
     "2067-68": 158.9,
     "2068-69": 162.5,
     "2069-70": 166.3,
     "2070-71": 170.2,
     "2071-72": 174.3,
     "2072-73": 178.5,
     "2073-74": 182.8,
     "2074-75": 187,
     "2075-76": 191.5
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    "group": "alternative long-term policy assumption scenarios"
   },
   {
    "id": "cpi-uprating-of-non-state-pension-welfare",
    "label": "CPI uprating of non-state pension welfare",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 94.3,
     "2026-27": 94.8,
     "2027-28": 95.7,
     "2028-29": 96.3,
     "2029-30": 96.1,
     "2030-31": 95.1,
     "2031-32": 94.7,
     "2032-33": 94.7,
     "2033-34": 95,
     "2034-35": 95.8,
     "2035-36": 96.8,
     "2036-37": 97.7,
     "2037-38": 98.6,
     "2038-39": 99.5,
     "2039-40": 100.5,
     "2040-41": 101.5,
     "2041-42": 102.6,
     "2042-43": 103.7,
     "2043-44": 104.8,
     "2044-45": 106,
     "2045-46": 107.2,
     "2046-47": 108.5,
     "2047-48": 109.9,
     "2048-49": 111.5,
     "2049-50": 113.1,
     "2050-51": 114.9,
     "2051-52": 116.7,
     "2052-53": 118.7,
     "2053-54": 120.9,
     "2054-55": 123.2,
     "2055-56": 125.7,
     "2056-57": 128.4,
     "2057-58": 131.2,
     "2058-59": 134.1,
     "2059-60": 137.3,
     "2060-61": 140.6,
     "2061-62": 144,
     "2062-63": 147.7,
     "2063-64": 151.5,
     "2064-65": 155.5,
     "2065-66": 159.6,
     "2066-67": 164,
     "2067-68": 168.4,
     "2068-69": 173,
     "2069-70": 177.7,
     "2070-71": 182.7,
     "2071-72": 187.9,
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     "2073-74": 198.9,
     "2074-75": 204.4,
     "2075-76": 210.2
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    "group": "alternative long-term policy assumption scenarios"
   },
   {
    "id": "earnings-uprating-of-the-state-pension",
    "label": "Earnings uprating of the state pension",
    "values": {
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     "2026-27": 94.8,
     "2027-28": 95.7,
     "2028-29": 96.3,
     "2029-30": 96.1,
     "2030-31": 95.1,
     "2031-32": 94.7,
     "2032-33": 94.8,
     "2033-34": 95.3,
     "2034-35": 96.2,
     "2035-36": 97.5,
     "2036-37": 98.7,
     "2037-38": 100,
     "2038-39": 101.3,
     "2039-40": 102.8,
     "2040-41": 104.4,
     "2041-42": 106.1,
     "2042-43": 107.9,
     "2043-44": 109.7,
     "2044-45": 111.7,
     "2045-46": 113.8,
     "2046-47": 116,
     "2047-48": 118.4,
     "2048-49": 121,
     "2049-50": 123.7,
     "2050-51": 126.6,
     "2051-52": 129.6,
     "2052-53": 132.9,
     "2053-54": 136.3,
     "2054-55": 139.9,
     "2055-56": 143.8,
     "2056-57": 147.8,
     "2057-58": 152.1,
     "2058-59": 156.5,
     "2059-60": 161.1,
     "2060-61": 165.9,
     "2061-62": 170.9,
     "2062-63": 176.1,
     "2063-64": 181.5,
     "2064-65": 187.1,
     "2065-66": 192.8,
     "2066-67": 198.8,
     "2067-68": 204.9,
     "2068-69": 211.1,
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     "2070-71": 224.1,
     "2071-72": 231,
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     "2075-76": 260.3
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    "group": "alternative long-term policy assumption scenarios"
   }
  ],
  "fuelDuty": [
   {
    "id": "fuel-duty",
    "label": "Fuel duty",
    "values": {
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     "2026-27": 0.778,
     "2027-28": 0.81,
     "2028-29": 0.786,
     "2029-30": 0.752,
     "2030-31": 0.709,
     "2031-32": 0.625,
     "2032-33": 0.569,
     "2033-34": 0.514,
     "2034-35": 0.464,
     "2035-36": 0.415,
     "2036-37": 0.356,
     "2037-38": 0.318,
     "2038-39": 0.285,
     "2039-40": 0.258,
     "2040-41": 0.235,
     "2041-42": 0.215,
     "2042-43": 0.197,
     "2043-44": 0.181,
     "2044-45": 0.165,
     "2045-46": 0.146,
     "2046-47": 0.129,
     "2047-48": 0.115,
     "2048-49": 0.102,
     "2049-50": 0.091,
     "2050-51": 0.082,
     "2051-52": 0.072,
     "2052-53": 0.063,
     "2053-54": 0.054,
     "2054-55": 0.046,
     "2055-56": 0.039,
     "2056-57": 0.032,
     "2057-58": 0.025,
     "2058-59": 0.019,
     "2059-60": 0.013,
     "2060-61": 0.008,
     "2061-62": 0.002,
     "2062-63": 0.002,
     "2063-64": 0.002,
     "2064-65": 0.002,
     "2065-66": 0.002,
     "2066-67": 0.002,
     "2067-68": 0.002,
     "2068-69": 0.002,
     "2069-70": 0.002,
     "2070-71": 0.002,
     "2071-72": 0.002,
     "2072-73": 0.002,
     "2073-74": 0.002,
     "2074-75": 0.002,
     "2075-76": 0.002
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   },
   {
    "id": "eved-cpi-uprating",
    "label": "eVED (CPI uprating)",
    "values": {
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     "2029-30": 0.044,
     "2030-31": 0.055,
     "2031-32": 0.064,
     "2032-33": 0.074,
     "2033-34": 0.083,
     "2034-35": 0.092,
     "2035-36": 0.1,
     "2036-37": 0.108,
     "2037-38": 0.114,
     "2038-39": 0.12,
     "2039-40": 0.125,
     "2040-41": 0.13,
     "2041-42": 0.133,
     "2042-43": 0.137,
     "2043-44": 0.139,
     "2044-45": 0.141,
     "2045-46": 0.142,
     "2046-47": 0.143,
     "2047-48": 0.143,
     "2048-49": 0.143,
     "2049-50": 0.143,
     "2050-51": 0.143,
     "2051-52": 0.143,
     "2052-53": 0.143,
     "2053-54": 0.144,
     "2054-55": 0.144,
     "2055-56": 0.144,
     "2056-57": 0.145,
     "2057-58": 0.145,
     "2058-59": 0.146,
     "2059-60": 0.146,
     "2060-61": 0.146,
     "2061-62": 0.147,
     "2062-63": 0.147,
     "2063-64": 0.148,
     "2064-65": 0.148,
     "2065-66": 0.149,
     "2066-67": 0.15,
     "2067-68": 0.15,
     "2068-69": 0.15,
     "2069-70": 0.151,
     "2070-71": 0.151,
     "2071-72": 0.152,
     "2072-73": 0.152,
     "2073-74": 0.152,
     "2074-75": 0.153,
     "2075-76": 0.153
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   },
   {
    "id": "eved-earnings-uprating",
    "label": "eVED (earnings uprating)",
    "values": {
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     "2029-30": 0.044,
     "2030-31": 0.055,
     "2031-32": 0.066,
     "2032-33": 0.076,
     "2033-34": 0.087,
     "2034-35": 0.098,
     "2035-36": 0.108,
     "2036-37": 0.118,
     "2037-38": 0.127,
     "2038-39": 0.136,
     "2039-40": 0.144,
     "2040-41": 0.152,
     "2041-42": 0.159,
     "2042-43": 0.165,
     "2043-44": 0.171,
     "2044-45": 0.176,
     "2045-46": 0.181,
     "2046-47": 0.185,
     "2047-48": 0.189,
     "2048-49": 0.192,
     "2049-50": 0.194,
     "2050-51": 0.198,
     "2051-52": 0.2,
     "2052-53": 0.202,
     "2053-54": 0.204,
     "2054-55": 0.206,
     "2055-56": 0.209,
     "2056-57": 0.211,
     "2057-58": 0.214,
     "2058-59": 0.216,
     "2059-60": 0.219,
     "2060-61": 0.221,
     "2061-62": 0.222,
     "2062-63": 0.223,
     "2063-64": 0.223,
     "2064-65": 0.224,
     "2065-66": 0.225,
     "2066-67": 0.226,
     "2067-68": 0.227,
     "2068-69": 0.227,
     "2069-70": 0.228,
     "2070-71": 0.228,
     "2071-72": 0.229,
     "2072-73": 0.23,
     "2073-74": 0.23,
     "2074-75": 0.231,
     "2075-76": 0.231
    }
   }
  ],
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   {
    "id": "baseline",
    "label": "Baseline",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 8.35,
     "2026-27": 8.33,
     "2027-28": 8.39,
     "2028-29": 8.48,
     "2029-30": 8.38,
     "2030-31": 8.36,
     "2031-32": 8.47,
     "2032-33": 8.6,
     "2033-34": 8.73,
     "2034-35": 8.85,
     "2035-36": 8.96,
     "2036-37": 9.08,
     "2037-38": 9.19,
     "2038-39": 9.3,
     "2039-40": 9.4,
     "2040-41": 9.51,
     "2041-42": 9.62,
     "2042-43": 9.73,
     "2043-44": 9.84,
     "2044-45": 9.95,
     "2045-46": 10.07,
     "2046-47": 10.18,
     "2047-48": 10.3,
     "2048-49": 10.41,
     "2049-50": 10.52,
     "2050-51": 10.63,
     "2051-52": 10.74,
     "2052-53": 10.85,
     "2053-54": 10.95,
     "2054-55": 11.05,
     "2055-56": 11.16,
     "2056-57": 11.26,
     "2057-58": 11.36,
     "2058-59": 11.46,
     "2059-60": 11.56,
     "2060-61": 11.66,
     "2061-62": 11.76,
     "2062-63": 11.87,
     "2063-64": 11.98,
     "2064-65": 12.09,
     "2065-66": 12.21,
     "2066-67": 12.33,
     "2067-68": 12.45,
     "2068-69": 12.57,
     "2069-70": 12.7,
     "2070-71": 12.82,
     "2071-72": 12.95,
     "2072-73": 13.08,
     "2073-74": 13.2,
     "2074-75": 13.33,
     "2075-76": 13.46
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "no-extra-cost-pressures-in-health-spending",
    "label": "No extra cost pressures in health spending",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 8.35,
     "2026-27": 8.33,
     "2027-28": 8.39,
     "2028-29": 8.48,
     "2029-30": 8.38,
     "2030-31": 8.36,
     "2031-32": 8.39,
     "2032-33": 8.45,
     "2033-34": 8.49,
     "2034-35": 8.53,
     "2035-36": 8.56,
     "2036-37": 8.59,
     "2037-38": 8.61,
     "2038-39": 8.64,
     "2039-40": 8.66,
     "2040-41": 8.68,
     "2041-42": 8.69,
     "2042-43": 8.71,
     "2043-44": 8.73,
     "2044-45": 8.75,
     "2045-46": 8.77,
     "2046-47": 8.79,
     "2047-48": 8.8,
     "2048-49": 8.82,
     "2049-50": 8.83,
     "2050-51": 8.84,
     "2051-52": 8.85,
     "2052-53": 8.85,
     "2053-54": 8.85,
     "2054-55": 8.85,
     "2055-56": 8.85,
     "2056-57": 8.85,
     "2057-58": 8.85,
     "2058-59": 8.84,
     "2059-60": 8.84,
     "2060-61": 8.83,
     "2061-62": 8.82,
     "2062-63": 8.82,
     "2063-64": 8.82,
     "2064-65": 8.82,
     "2065-66": 8.82,
     "2066-67": 8.82,
     "2067-68": 8.83,
     "2068-69": 8.83,
     "2069-70": 8.84,
     "2070-71": 8.84,
     "2071-72": 8.84,
     "2072-73": 8.85,
     "2073-74": 8.85,
     "2074-75": 8.85,
     "2075-76": 8.85
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "lower-healthy-life-expectancy",
    "label": "Lower healthy life expectancy",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 8.35,
     "2026-27": 8.33,
     "2027-28": 8.48,
     "2028-29": 8.38,
     "2029-30": 8.36,
     "2030-31": 8.36,
     "2031-32": 8.49,
     "2032-33": 8.65,
     "2033-34": 8.79,
     "2034-35": 8.94,
     "2035-36": 9.08,
     "2036-37": 9.21,
     "2037-38": 9.35,
     "2038-39": 9.49,
     "2039-40": 9.62,
     "2040-41": 9.76,
     "2041-42": 9.9,
     "2042-43": 10.04,
     "2043-44": 10.18,
     "2044-45": 10.32,
     "2045-46": 10.47,
     "2046-47": 10.61,
     "2047-48": 10.76,
     "2048-49": 10.91,
     "2049-50": 11.05,
     "2050-51": 11.2,
     "2051-52": 11.34,
     "2052-53": 11.48,
     "2053-54": 11.62,
     "2054-55": 11.76,
     "2055-56": 11.9,
     "2056-57": 12.05,
     "2057-58": 12.19,
     "2058-59": 12.32,
     "2059-60": 12.47,
     "2060-61": 12.61,
     "2061-62": 12.76,
     "2062-63": 12.91,
     "2063-64": 13.06,
     "2064-65": 13.22,
     "2065-66": 13.39,
     "2066-67": 13.56,
     "2067-68": 13.74,
     "2068-69": 13.91,
     "2069-70": 14.09,
     "2070-71": 14.27,
     "2071-72": 14.45,
     "2072-73": 14.63,
     "2073-74": 14.81,
     "2074-75": 14.99,
     "2075-76": 15.17
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "higher-healthy-life-expectancy",
    "label": "Higher healthy life expectancy",
    "values": {
     "2025-26": 8.35,
     "2026-27": 8.33,
     "2027-28": 8.48,
     "2028-29": 8.38,
     "2029-30": 8.36,
     "2030-31": 8.36,
     "2031-32": 8.45,
     "2032-33": 8.55,
     "2033-34": 8.66,
     "2034-35": 8.75,
     "2035-36": 8.84,
     "2036-37": 8.93,
     "2037-38": 9.02,
     "2038-39": 9.1,
     "2039-40": 9.18,
     "2040-41": 9.26,
     "2041-42": 9.34,
     "2042-43": 9.42,
     "2043-44": 9.5,
     "2044-45": 9.58,
     "2045-46": 9.67,
     "2046-47": 9.75,
     "2047-48": 9.83,
     "2048-49": 9.91,
     "2049-50": 9.99,
     "2050-51": 10.07,
     "2051-52": 10.14,
     "2052-53": 10.22,
     "2053-54": 10.29,
     "2054-55": 10.36,
     "2055-56": 10.43,
     "2056-57": 10.5,
     "2057-58": 10.56,
     "2058-59": 10.63,
     "2059-60": 10.69,
     "2060-61": 10.76,
     "2061-62": 10.82,
     "2062-63": 10.89,
     "2063-64": 10.96,
     "2064-65": 11.03,
     "2065-66": 11.1,
     "2066-67": 11.18,
     "2067-68": 11.25,
     "2068-69": 11.33,
     "2069-70": 11.41,
     "2070-71": 11.49,
     "2071-72": 11.57,
     "2072-73": 11.66,
     "2073-74": 11.74,
     "2074-75": 11.81,
     "2075-76": 11.89
    }
   }
  ],
  "borrowingDrivers": [
   {
    "label": "Net interest spending",
    "points": 9.09
   },
   {
    "label": "Defence",
    "points": 0.75
   },
   {
    "label": "State pension spending",
    "points": 3.63
   },
   {
    "label": "Health spending",
    "points": 5.1
   },
   {
    "label": "Net zero-affected taxes",
    "points": 1.02
   },
   {
    "label": "Other receipts",
    "points": -1.03
   },
   {
    "label": "Other primary spending",
    "points": -0.66
   },
   {
    "label": "Public sector net borrowing",
    "points": 17.9
   }
  ],
  "hand": {
   "panels": [
    {
     "question": "What should be done about the long-term path for debt?",
     "a": {
      "heading": "Those who call for early action on borrowing",
      "views": [
       {
        "who": "Ruth Curtice",
        "org": "Resolution Foundation",
        "date": "2026-07-16",
        "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/the-three-steps-needed-to-climb-out-of-the-uks-fiscal-hole/",
        "quote": "It would be better to adjust taxes and spending in advance.",
        "verified": true
       },
       {
        "who": "David Aikman",
        "org": "National Institute of Economic and Social Research",
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "url": "https://niesr.ac.uk/blog/should-burnham-front-load-fiscal-squeeze",
        "quote": "the alternative is a larger adjustment scheduled for a politically difficult moment, when monetary space is uncertain and the probability of delivery may be low.",
        "verified": true
       },
       {
        "who": "Helen Miller, Director",
        "org": "Institute for Fiscal Studies",
        "date": "2026-07-20",
        "url": "https://ifs.org.uk/articles/actions-speak-louder-words",
        "quote": "Loosening the rules in order to borrow significantly more would mean debt continuing to rise and would undermine the UK’s fiscal credibility.",
        "verified": true
       },
       {
        "who": "David Bharier",
        "org": "British Chambers of Commerce",
        "date": "2026-07-08",
        "url": "https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2026/07/obr-report-sets-out-stark-fiscal-challenge/",
        "quote": "Only sustainably higher productivity can provide an off-ramp.",
        "verified": true
       },
       {
        "who": "Anne Strickland",
        "org": "TaxPayers’ Alliance",
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "url": "https://taxpayersalliance.com/data-decoded-july/",
        "quote": "the longer action is delayed, the more it costs, and the greater the burden placed on future generations.",
        "verified": true
       }
      ]
     },
     "b": {
      "heading": "Those who put more weight on investment, growth or changing the fiscal rules",
      "views": [
       {
        "who": "William Ellis",
        "org": "IPPR",
        "date": "2026-08-13",
        "url": "https://www.ippr.org/media-office/revealed-1-in-every-5-of-future-generations-taxes-set-to-go-on-debt-interest",
        "quote": "Our current fiscal framework is not fit for purpose, and blind to the risks that decide long-term sustainability.",
        "verified": true
       },
       {
        "who": "Jaya Sood",
        "org": "New Economics Foundation",
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "url": "https://neweconomics.org/2026/07/burnhams-economic-transformation-will-depend-on-changing-our-fiscal-and-monetary-framework",
        "quote": "Burnham’s government needs to replace our rigid debt and borrowing targets with a fiscal committee empowered to judge a sustainable range for borrowing based on the state of the economy, not an arbitrary five-year snapshot.",
        "verified": true
       },
       {
        "who": "Richard Murphy",
        "org": "Tax Research UK",
        "date": "2026-07-13",
        "url": "https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2026/07/13/can-andy-burnham-rebuild-britain-if-the-obr-says-no/",
        "quote": "the cost of government debt matters far more than the amount of debt itself",
        "verified": true
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ],
   "context": [
    {
     "who": "Office for Budget Responsibility",
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "url": "https://obr.uk/frs/fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-july-2026/",
     "quote": "We stress that it is not plausible that the UK, or any other country, could remain on any of the unsustainable paths set out in these scenarios, because they imply that debt will ultimately grow explosively."
    },
    {
     "who": "ICAEW Insights",
     "date": "2026-09-10",
     "url": "https://www.icaew.com/insights/viewpoints-on-the-news/2026/sep-2026/chart-of-the-week-obr-long-term-fiscal-forecast",
     "quote": "The OBR’s projections are not a prediction but a warning."
    },
    {
     "who": "HM Treasury spokesperson, as reported by PA",
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "url": "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-debt-grow-explosively-not-102442965.html",
     "quote": "We have the right economic plan to deal with economic shocks."
    }
   ]
  }
 },
 "notes": [
  "Every figure is a percentage of GDP.",
  "These are projections, not forecasts: they show where current policy would lead if it were left unchanged for fifty years, on the OBR’s assumptions about population, productivity and interest rates. The scenarios change one assumption at a time.",
  "Snapshot tables give 2025-26, 2030-31 and every tenth year to 2075-76. Debt, fuel duty and health are annual."
 ]
}