{
 "id": "welfare-forecast",
 "title": "Welfare spending: outturn, forecasts and long-term projections",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-29T01:00:03.501Z",
 "geography": {
  "code": "K02000001",
  "name": "United Kingdom",
  "note": "The OBR forecasts UK welfare spending, including Northern Ireland social security."
 },
 "units": "£ billion, cash",
 "sources": [
  {
   "id": "obr-efo-march-2026",
   "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2026: detailed forecast tables, expenditure",
   "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility",
   "url": "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/",
   "file": "https://obr.uk/download/march-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-expenditure/",
   "published": "2026-03-03",
   "edition": "March 2026",
   "licence": "ogl-3"
  },
  {
   "id": "obr-efo-november-2025",
   "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook, November 2025: detailed forecast tables, expenditure",
   "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility",
   "url": "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/",
   "file": "https://obr.uk/download/november-2025-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-expenditure/",
   "published": "2025-11-26",
   "edition": "November 2025",
   "licence": "ogl-3"
  },
  {
   "id": "obr-efo-march-2025",
   "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2025: detailed forecast tables, expenditure",
   "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility",
   "url": "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/",
   "file": "https://obr.uk/download/march-2025-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-expenditure/",
   "published": "2025-03-26",
   "edition": "March 2025",
   "licence": "ogl-3"
  },
  {
   "id": "obr-efo-october-2024",
   "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2024: detailed forecast tables, expenditure",
   "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility",
   "url": "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2024/",
   "file": "https://obr.uk/download/october-2024-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-expenditure/",
   "published": "2024-10-30",
   "edition": "October 2024",
   "licence": "ogl-3"
  },
  {
   "id": "obr-efo-latest-ch4",
   "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2026: charts and tables, chapter 4",
   "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility",
   "url": "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/",
   "file": "https://obr.uk/download/march-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-charts-and-tables-chapter-4/",
   "published": "2026-03-03",
   "edition": "Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2026",
   "licence": "ogl-3"
  },
  {
   "id": "obr-fiscal-rules",
   "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook, November 2025: performance against the fiscal rules",
   "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility",
   "url": "https://obr.uk/economic-and-fiscal-outlooks/",
   "file": "https://obr.uk/download/november-2025-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-charts-and-tables-chapter-7/",
   "published": "2025-11-26",
   "edition": "November 2025",
   "licence": "ogl-3"
  },
  {
   "id": "obr-wtr",
   "name": "Welfare trends report, June 2026: charts and tables",
   "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility",
   "url": "https://obr.uk/welfare-trends-report/",
   "file": "https://obr.uk/download/june-2026-welfare-trends-report-charts-and-tables/",
   "published": null,
   "edition": "June 2026",
   "licence": "ogl-3"
  }
 ],
 "data": {
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    "file": "https://obr.uk/download/march-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-expenditure/",
    "firstForecastYear": "2025-26",
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     "2025-26": 332.87,
     "2026-27": 352.79,
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     "2030-31": 406.91
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    "insideCap": {
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     "2026-27": 177.71,
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     "2029-30": 199.23,
     "2030-31": 207.01
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     "2028-29": 182.56,
     "2029-30": 190.69,
     "2030-31": 199.89
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     "2027-28": 158.93,
     "2028-29": 163.99,
     "2029-30": 172.2,
     "2030-31": 180.7
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     "2025-26": 79.29,
     "2026-27": 87.65,
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     "2030-31": 94.93
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    "disability": {
     "2024-25": 33.68,
     "2025-26": 36.91,
     "2026-27": 40.98,
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     "2028-29": 47.2,
     "2029-30": 50.57,
     "2030-31": 54.38
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    "healthAndDisability": {
     "2024-25": 76.9,
     "2025-26": 83.43,
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     "2027-28": 95.22,
     "2028-29": 99.56,
     "2029-30": 104.4,
     "2030-31": 109.84
    }
   },
   {
    "edition": "november-2025",
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    "page": "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/",
    "file": "https://obr.uk/download/november-2025-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-expenditure/",
    "firstForecastYear": "2025-26",
    "total": {
     "2024-25": 314.65,
     "2025-26": 332.99,
     "2026-27": 351.89,
     "2027-28": 362.12,
     "2028-29": 372.88,
     "2029-30": 389.36,
     "2030-31": 406.21
    },
    "insideCap": {
     "2024-25": 158.79,
     "2025-26": 167.21,
     "2026-27": 174.59,
     "2027-28": 181.33,
     "2028-29": 187.92,
     "2029-30": 195.86,
     "2030-31": 203.52
    },
    "outsideCap": {
     "2024-25": 155.87,
     "2025-26": 165.78,
     "2026-27": 177.31,
     "2027-28": 180.79,
     "2028-29": 184.96,
     "2029-30": 193.5,
     "2030-31": 202.69
    },
    "statePension": {
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     "2028-29": 163.51,
     "2029-30": 171.7,
     "2030-31": 180.15
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     "2024-25": 66.35,
     "2025-26": 79.53,
     "2026-27": 87.63,
     "2027-28": 88.57,
     "2028-29": 90.03,
     "2029-30": 92.88,
     "2030-31": 95.73
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    "disability": {
     "2024-25": 33.68,
     "2025-26": 36.9,
     "2026-27": 40.7,
     "2027-28": 43.98,
     "2028-29": 47.04,
     "2029-30": 50.43,
     "2030-31": 54.23
    },
    "healthAndDisability": {
     "2024-25": 76.77,
     "2025-26": 83.14,
     "2026-27": 89.5,
     "2027-28": 94.48,
     "2028-29": 98.69,
     "2029-30": 103.62,
     "2030-31": 109.02
    }
   },
   {
    "edition": "march-2025",
    "label": "Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2025",
    "published": "2025-03-26",
    "page": "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/",
    "file": "https://obr.uk/download/march-2025-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-expenditure/",
    "firstForecastYear": "2024-25",
    "total": {
     "2023-24": 296.35,
     "2024-25": 313.04,
     "2025-26": 326.13,
     "2026-27": 342.13,
     "2027-28": 348.83,
     "2028-29": 358.51,
     "2029-30": 373.4
    },
    "insideCap": {
     "2023-24": 146.26,
     "2024-25": 157.79,
     "2025-26": 160.68,
     "2026-27": 168.12,
     "2027-28": 172.33,
     "2028-29": 177.41,
     "2029-30": 183.84
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     "2024-25": 155.25,
     "2025-26": 165.45,
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     "2027-28": 176.49,
     "2028-29": 181.1,
     "2029-30": 189.56
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    "statePension": {
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     "2028-29": 160.86,
     "2029-30": 168.66
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    "universalCredit": {
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     "2024-25": 64.91,
     "2025-26": 75.82,
     "2026-27": 83.1,
     "2027-28": 83.95,
     "2028-29": 85.94,
     "2029-30": 88.91
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     "2024-25": 33.62,
     "2025-26": 36.55,
     "2026-27": 39.96,
     "2027-28": 41.89,
     "2028-29": 43.81,
     "2029-30": 46.33
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    "healthAndDisability": {
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     "2024-25": 75.66,
     "2025-26": 81.16,
     "2026-27": 86.86,
     "2027-28": 90.12,
     "2028-29": 93.45,
     "2029-30": 97.69
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   },
   {
    "edition": "october-2024",
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    "page": "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2024/",
    "file": "https://obr.uk/download/october-2024-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-expenditure/",
    "firstForecastYear": "2024-25",
    "total": {
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     "2024-25": 313.56,
     "2025-26": 327.49,
     "2026-27": 340.49,
     "2027-28": 349.5,
     "2028-29": 361.4,
     "2029-30": 377.68
    },
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     "2028-29": 179.63,
     "2029-30": 187.32
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    "outsideCap": {
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     "2027-28": 176.85,
     "2028-29": 181.77,
     "2029-30": 190.35
    },
    "statePension": {
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     "2024-25": 138.13,
     "2025-26": 146.61,
     "2026-27": 153.78,
     "2027-28": 156.65,
     "2028-29": 161.51,
     "2029-30": 169.45
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    "universalCredit": {
     "2023-24": 51.79,
     "2024-25": 65.17,
     "2025-26": 77.45,
     "2026-27": 81.2,
     "2027-28": 82.8,
     "2028-29": 85.31,
     "2029-30": 88.69
    },
    "disability": {
     "2023-24": 28.65,
     "2024-25": 33.56,
     "2025-26": 36.67,
     "2026-27": 39.88,
     "2027-28": 43.22,
     "2028-29": 46.37,
     "2029-30": 49.89
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    "healthAndDisability": {}
   }
  ],
  "byBenefit": {
   "inside": [
    {
     "id": "dwp-social-security",
     "label": "DWP social security",
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      "2025-26": 148.87,
      "2026-27": 157.16,
      "2027-28": 163.34,
      "2028-29": 170.07,
      "2029-30": 177.77,
      "2030-31": 185.27
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "housing-benefit-not-on-jsa",
     "label": "Housing benefit (not on JSA)",
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      "2027-28": 11.97,
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      "2029-30": 12.95,
      "2030-31": 13.37
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "disability-living-allowance-and-personal-independence-payments",
     "label": "Disability living allowance and personal independence payments",
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      "2027-28": 44.12,
      "2028-29": 47.2,
      "2029-30": 50.57,
      "2030-31": 54.38
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "incapacity-benefits",
     "label": "Incapacity benefits",
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      "2026-27": 5.35,
      "2027-28": 5.4,
      "2028-29": 5.32,
      "2029-30": 5.21,
      "2030-31": 5.23
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "attendance-allowance",
     "label": "Attendance allowance",
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      "2026-27": 9.23,
      "2027-28": 9.68,
      "2028-29": 10.1,
      "2029-30": 10.57,
      "2030-31": 11.07
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "pension-credit",
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      "2025-26": 6.15,
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      "2027-28": 5.91,
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      "2029-30": 5.83,
      "2030-31": 5.82
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    },
    {
     "id": "carer-s-allowance",
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      "2027-28": 5.4,
      "2028-29": 5.69,
      "2029-30": 5.98,
      "2030-31": 6.26
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "statutory-maternity-pay",
     "label": "Statutory maternity pay",
     "values": {
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      "2025-26": 3.19,
      "2026-27": 3.32,
      "2027-28": 3.41,
      "2028-29": 3.5,
      "2029-30": 3.6,
      "2030-31": 3.7
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "income-support-non-incapacity",
     "label": "Income support (non-incapacity)",
     "values": {
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      "2025-26": 0.01,
      "2026-27": 0.01,
      "2027-28": 0,
      "2028-29": 0,
      "2029-30": 0,
      "2030-31": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "winter-fuel-payment",
     "label": "Winter fuel payment",
     "values": {
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      "2026-27": 1.91,
      "2027-28": 1.91,
      "2028-29": 1.92,
      "2029-30": 1.96,
      "2030-31": 2.01
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "universal-credit",
     "label": "Universal credit",
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      "2025-26": 66.41,
      "2026-27": 71.71,
      "2027-28": 73.59,
      "2028-29": 76.29,
      "2029-30": 79.18,
      "2030-31": 81.53
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "other-dwp-in-welfare-cap",
     "label": "Other DWP in welfare cap",
     "values": {
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      "2025-26": 1.91,
      "2026-27": 1.93,
      "2027-28": 1.93,
      "2028-29": 1.93,
      "2029-30": 1.92,
      "2030-31": 1.91
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "armed-forces-independence-payment",
     "label": "Armed forces independence payment",
     "values": {
      "2024-25": 0,
      "2025-26": 0,
      "2026-27": 0,
      "2027-28": 0,
      "2028-29": 0,
      "2029-30": 0,
      "2030-31": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "bereavement-benefits",
     "label": "Bereavement benefits",
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      "2025-26": 0.3,
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      "2027-28": 0.27,
      "2028-29": 0.26,
      "2029-30": 0.26,
      "2030-31": 0.25
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "christmas-bonus",
     "label": "Christmas bonus",
     "values": {
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      "2025-26": 0.19,
      "2026-27": 0.19,
      "2027-28": 0.19,
      "2028-29": 0.19,
      "2029-30": 0.2,
      "2030-31": 0.2
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "cold-weather-payments",
     "label": "Cold weather payments",
     "values": {
      "2024-25": 0,
      "2025-26": 0,
      "2026-27": 0,
      "2027-28": 0,
      "2028-29": 0,
      "2029-30": 0,
      "2030-31": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "financial-assistance-scheme",
     "label": "Financial assistance scheme",
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      "2025-26": 0.25,
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      "2027-28": 0.27,
      "2028-29": 0.27,
      "2029-30": 0.27,
      "2030-31": 0.28
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "industrial-injuries-benefits",
     "label": "Industrial injuries benefits",
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      "2027-28": 0.72,
      "2028-29": 0.69,
      "2029-30": 0.67,
      "2030-31": 0.65
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "maternity-allowance",
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      "2027-28": 0.42,
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      "2029-30": 0.45,
      "2030-31": 0.46
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "support-for-mortgage-interest-loans-write-offs",
     "label": "Support for mortgage interest loans (write-offs)",
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      "2026-27": 0,
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      "2029-30": 0,
      "2030-31": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "tax-credits-transferred-debt",
     "label": "Tax credits transferred debt",
     "values": {
      "2024-25": 0,
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      "2028-29": 0,
      "2029-30": 0,
      "2030-31": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "statutory-sick-pay",
     "label": "Statutory sick pay",
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      "2028-29": 0,
      "2029-30": 0,
      "2030-31": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "personal-tax-credits",
     "label": "Personal tax credits",
     "values": {
      "2024-25": 1.88,
      "2025-26": -0.07,
      "2026-27": -0.1,
      "2027-28": -0.06,
      "2028-29": -0.04,
      "2029-30": -0.02,
      "2030-31": -0.02
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "child-benefit",
     "label": "Child benefit",
     "values": {
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      "2025-26": 13.39,
      "2026-27": 13.71,
      "2027-28": 13.81,
      "2028-29": 13.86,
      "2029-30": 13.91,
      "2030-31": 13.96
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "tax-free-childcare",
     "label": "Tax free childcare",
     "values": {
      "2024-25": 0.63,
      "2025-26": 0.6,
      "2026-27": 0.58,
      "2027-28": 0.59,
      "2028-29": 0.6,
      "2029-30": 0.6,
      "2030-31": 0.6
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "ni-social-security-in-welfare-cap",
     "label": "NI social security in welfare cap",
     "values": {
      "2024-25": 5.71,
      "2025-26": 6.24,
      "2026-27": 6.27,
      "2027-28": 6.47,
      "2028-29": 6.66,
      "2029-30": 6.87,
      "2030-31": 7.1
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "paternity-pay",
     "label": "Paternity pay",
     "values": {
      "2024-25": 0.09,
      "2025-26": 0.1,
      "2026-27": 0.1,
      "2027-28": 0.1,
      "2028-29": 0.1,
      "2029-30": 0.1,
      "2030-31": 0.1
     }
    }
   ],
   "outside": [
    {
     "id": "dwp-social-security",
     "label": "DWP social security",
     "values": {
      "2024-25": 151.87,
      "2025-26": 159.34,
      "2026-27": 170.48,
      "2027-28": 174.04,
      "2028-29": 177.62,
      "2029-30": 185.48,
      "2030-31": 194.4
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "state-pension",
     "label": "State pension",
     "values": {
      "2024-25": 137.98,
      "2025-26": 146.19,
      "2026-27": 154.18,
      "2027-28": 158.93,
      "2028-29": 163.99,
      "2029-30": 172.2,
      "2030-31": 180.7
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "jobseeker-s-allowance",
     "label": "Jobseeker's allowance",
     "values": {
      "2024-25": 0.31,
      "2025-26": 0.28,
      "2026-27": 0.37,
      "2027-28": 0.34,
      "2028-29": 0.31,
      "2029-30": 0.3,
      "2030-31": 0.31
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "housing-benefit-on-jsa",
     "label": "Housing benefit (on JSA)",
     "values": {
      "2024-25": 0.06,
      "2025-26": 0,
      "2026-27": 0,
      "2027-28": 0,
      "2028-29": 0,
      "2029-30": 0,
      "2030-31": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "universal-credit",
     "label": "Universal credit",
     "values": {
      "2024-25": 13.52,
      "2025-26": 12.88,
      "2026-27": 15.94,
      "2027-28": 14.78,
      "2028-29": 13.32,
      "2029-30": 12.98,
      "2030-31": 13.4
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "other-dwp-outside-welfare-cap",
     "label": "Other DWP outside welfare cap",
     "values": {
      "2024-25": 0,
      "2025-26": 0,
      "2026-27": 0,
      "2027-28": 0,
      "2028-29": 0,
      "2029-30": 0,
      "2030-31": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "ni-social-security-outside-welfare-cap",
     "label": "NI social security outside welfare cap",
     "values": {
      "2024-25": 4,
      "2025-26": 4.41,
      "2026-27": 4.61,
      "2027-28": 4.77,
      "2028-29": 4.94,
      "2029-30": 5.21,
      "2030-31": 5.49
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "groups": [
   {
    "id": "pensioner-spending",
    "label": "Pensioner spending",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 150.97,
     "2025-26": 161.17,
     "2026-27": 169.22,
     "2027-28": 173.87,
     "2028-29": 178.91,
     "2029-30": 187.46,
     "2030-31": 196.17
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "uc-and-legacy-equivalents",
    "label": "UC and legacy equivalents",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 89.21,
     "2025-26": 91.88,
     "2026-27": 97.84,
     "2027-28": 98.9,
     "2028-29": 100.33,
     "2029-30": 103.12,
     "2030-31": 106.17
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "disability-benefits",
    "label": "Disability benefits",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 41.44,
     "2025-26": 45.4,
     "2026-27": 50.21,
     "2027-28": 53.81,
     "2028-29": 57.3,
     "2029-30": 61.14,
     "2030-31": 65.45
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "child-benefit",
    "label": "Child benefit",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 13.31,
     "2025-26": 13.39,
     "2026-27": 13.71,
     "2027-28": 13.81,
     "2028-29": 13.86,
     "2029-30": 13.91,
     "2030-31": 13.96
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "other-spending",
    "label": "Other spending",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 19.83,
     "2025-26": 21.03,
     "2026-27": 21.82,
     "2027-28": 22.67,
     "2028-29": 23.42,
     "2029-30": 24.28,
     "2030-31": 25.16
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "total-welfare-spending",
    "label": "Total welfare spending",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 314.76,
     "2025-26": 332.87,
     "2026-27": 352.79,
     "2027-28": 363.06,
     "2028-29": 373.81,
     "2029-30": 389.92,
     "2030-31": 406.91
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "inside-welfare-cap",
    "label": "Inside welfare cap",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 158.89,
     "2025-26": 169.13,
     "2026-27": 177.71,
     "2027-28": 184.25,
     "2028-29": 191.25,
     "2029-30": 199.23,
     "2030-31": 207.01
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "outside-welfare-cap",
    "label": "Outside welfare cap",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 155.87,
     "2025-26": 163.74,
     "2026-27": 175.09,
     "2027-28": 178.81,
     "2028-29": 182.56,
     "2029-30": 190.69,
     "2030-31": 199.89
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "memo-health-and-disability-benefits",
    "label": "Memo: health and disability benefits",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 76.9,
     "2025-26": 83.43,
     "2026-27": 90.36,
     "2027-28": 95.22,
     "2028-29": 99.56,
     "2029-30": 104.4,
     "2030-31": 109.84
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "children",
    "label": "Children",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 4.45,
     "2025-26": 5.34,
     "2026-27": 6.08,
     "2027-28": 6.69,
     "2028-29": 7.24,
     "2029-30": 7.77,
     "2030-31": 8.3
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "working-age-adults",
    "label": "Working-age adults",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 58.2,
     "2025-26": 62.71,
     "2026-27": 67.92,
     "2027-28": 71.77,
     "2028-29": 74.89,
     "2029-30": 78.06,
     "2030-31": 81.53
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "pensioners",
    "label": "Pensioners",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 14.25,
     "2025-26": 15.37,
     "2026-27": 16.36,
     "2027-28": 16.76,
     "2028-29": 17.44,
     "2029-30": 18.57,
     "2030-31": 20
    }
   }
  ],
  "shareOfGdp": {
   "2024-25": 10.73,
   "2025-26": 10.9,
   "2026-27": 11.15,
   "2027-28": 11.08,
   "2028-29": 11.02,
   "2029-30": 11.12,
   "2030-31": 11.2
  },
  "healthAndDisability": [
   {
    "id": "incapacity-spending",
    "label": "Incapacity spending",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 29.56,
     "2025-26": 31.72,
     "2026-27": 33.43,
     "2027-28": 34.28,
     "2028-29": 34.76,
     "2029-30": 35.37,
     "2030-31": 36.16
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "universal-credit-standard-allowance-and-health-element-expenditure",
    "label": "Universal credit standard allowance and health element expenditure",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 17.14,
     "2025-26": 24.51,
     "2026-27": 28.08,
     "2027-28": 28.88,
     "2028-29": 29.44,
     "2029-30": 30.17,
     "2030-31": 30.93
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "employment-and-support-allowance",
    "label": "Employment and support allowance",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 12.36,
     "2025-26": 7.16,
     "2026-27": 5.31,
     "2027-28": 5.37,
     "2028-29": 5.29,
     "2029-30": 5.18,
     "2030-31": 5.21
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "previous-incapacity-benefit-regimes",
    "label": "Previous incapacity benefit regimes",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 0.05,
     "2025-26": 0.05,
     "2026-27": 0.04,
     "2027-28": 0.04,
     "2028-29": 0.03,
     "2029-30": 0.02,
     "2030-31": 0.02
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "disability-spending",
    "label": "Disability spending",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 41.44,
     "2025-26": 45.4,
     "2026-27": 50.21,
     "2027-28": 53.81,
     "2028-29": 57.3,
     "2029-30": 61.14,
     "2030-31": 65.45
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "children",
    "label": "Children",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 4.45,
     "2025-26": 5.34,
     "2026-27": 6.08,
     "2027-28": 6.69,
     "2028-29": 7.24,
     "2029-30": 7.77,
     "2030-31": 8.3
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "working-age",
    "label": "Working-age",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 22.78,
     "2025-26": 24.73,
     "2026-27": 27.82,
     "2027-28": 30.4,
     "2028-29": 32.66,
     "2029-30": 34.85,
     "2030-31": 37.19
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "pensioner",
    "label": "Pensioner",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 14.21,
     "2025-26": 15.33,
     "2026-27": 16.32,
     "2027-28": 16.72,
     "2028-29": 17.4,
     "2029-30": 18.53,
     "2030-31": 19.96
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "disability-living-allowance",
    "label": "Disability living allowance",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 7.69,
     "2025-26": 8.32,
     "2026-27": 8.88,
     "2027-28": 9.3,
     "2028-29": 9.47,
     "2029-30": 9.35,
     "2030-31": 9.64
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "children",
    "label": "Children",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 4.45,
     "2025-26": 5.34,
     "2026-27": 6.08,
     "2027-28": 6.69,
     "2028-29": 7.24,
     "2029-30": 7.77,
     "2030-31": 8.3
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "working-age",
    "label": "Working-age",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 0.88,
     "2025-26": 0.81,
     "2026-27": 0.79,
     "2027-28": 0.76,
     "2028-29": 0.62,
     "2029-30": 0.26,
     "2030-31": 0.19
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "pensioner",
    "label": "Pensioner",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 2.36,
     "2025-26": 2.17,
     "2026-27": 2.02,
     "2027-28": 1.84,
     "2028-29": 1.62,
     "2029-30": 1.32,
     "2030-31": 1.14
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "personal-independence-payment",
    "label": "Personal independence payment",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 25.99,
     "2025-26": 28.59,
     "2026-27": 32.1,
     "2027-28": 34.83,
     "2028-29": 37.73,
     "2029-30": 41.22,
     "2030-31": 44.74
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "working-age",
    "label": "Working-age",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 21.9,
     "2025-26": 23.92,
     "2026-27": 27.03,
     "2027-28": 29.63,
     "2028-29": 32.05,
     "2029-30": 34.59,
     "2030-31": 37
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "pensioner",
    "label": "Pensioner",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 4.09,
     "2025-26": 4.67,
     "2026-27": 5.07,
     "2027-28": 5.19,
     "2028-29": 5.68,
     "2029-30": 6.63,
     "2030-31": 7.75
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "attendance-allowance",
    "label": "Attendance allowance",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 7.76,
     "2025-26": 8.49,
     "2026-27": 9.23,
     "2027-28": 9.68,
     "2028-29": 10.1,
     "2029-30": 10.57,
     "2030-31": 11.07
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "carer-related-spending",
    "label": "Carer-related spending",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 5.9,
     "2025-26": 6.3,
     "2026-27": 6.72,
     "2027-28": 7.13,
     "2028-29": 7.51,
     "2029-30": 7.88,
     "2030-31": 8.23
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "working-age",
    "label": "Working-age",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 5.86,
     "2025-26": 6.26,
     "2026-27": 6.68,
     "2027-28": 7.09,
     "2028-29": 7.47,
     "2029-30": 7.84,
     "2030-31": 8.18
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "pensioner",
    "label": "Pensioner",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 0.04,
     "2025-26": 0.04,
     "2026-27": 0.04,
     "2027-28": 0.04,
     "2028-29": 0.04,
     "2029-30": 0.04,
     "2030-31": 0.05
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "universal-credit-carer-s-element-expenditure",
    "label": "Universal credit carer's element expenditure",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 1.47,
     "2025-26": 1.73,
     "2026-27": 1.69,
     "2027-28": 1.74,
     "2028-29": 1.82,
     "2029-30": 1.9,
     "2030-31": 1.97
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "carer-s-allowance",
    "label": "Carer's allowance",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 4.24,
     "2025-26": 4.57,
     "2026-27": 5.02,
     "2027-28": 5.4,
     "2028-29": 5.69,
     "2029-30": 5.98,
     "2030-31": 6.26
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "working-age",
    "label": "Working-age",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 4.2,
     "2025-26": 4.53,
     "2026-27": 4.98,
     "2027-28": 5.36,
     "2028-29": 5.64,
     "2029-30": 5.93,
     "2030-31": 6.21
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "pensioner",
    "label": "Pensioner",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 0.04,
     "2025-26": 0.04,
     "2026-27": 0.04,
     "2027-28": 0.04,
     "2028-29": 0.04,
     "2029-30": 0.04,
     "2030-31": 0.05
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "income-support-carers",
    "label": "Income support (carers)",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 0.19,
     "2025-26": 0,
     "2026-27": 0,
     "2027-28": 0,
     "2028-29": 0,
     "2029-30": 0,
     "2030-31": 0
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "total-health-and-disability-spending",
    "label": "Total health and disability spending",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 76.9,
     "2025-26": 83.43,
     "2026-27": 90.36,
     "2027-28": 95.22,
     "2028-29": 99.56,
     "2029-30": 104.4,
     "2030-31": 109.84
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "children",
    "label": "Children",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 4.45,
     "2025-26": 5.34,
     "2026-27": 6.08,
     "2027-28": 6.69,
     "2028-29": 7.24,
     "2029-30": 7.77,
     "2030-31": 8.3
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "working-age",
    "label": "Working-age",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 58.2,
     "2025-26": 62.71,
     "2026-27": 67.92,
     "2027-28": 71.77,
     "2028-29": 74.89,
     "2029-30": 78.06,
     "2030-31": 81.53
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "pensioner",
    "label": "Pensioner",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 14.25,
     "2025-26": 15.37,
     "2026-27": 16.36,
     "2027-28": 16.76,
     "2028-29": 17.44,
     "2029-30": 18.57,
     "2030-31": 20
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "health-and-disability-spending-excluding-carer-related-spending",
    "label": "Health and disability spending (excluding carer-related spending)",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 71,
     "2025-26": 77.12,
     "2026-27": 83.64,
     "2027-28": 88.09,
     "2028-29": 92.06,
     "2029-30": 96.52,
     "2030-31": 101.61
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "children",
    "label": "Children",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 4.45,
     "2025-26": 5.34,
     "2026-27": 6.08,
     "2027-28": 6.69,
     "2028-29": 7.24,
     "2029-30": 7.77,
     "2030-31": 8.3
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "working-age",
    "label": "Working-age",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 52.34,
     "2025-26": 56.45,
     "2026-27": 61.25,
     "2027-28": 64.68,
     "2028-29": 67.42,
     "2029-30": 70.22,
     "2030-31": 73.35
    }
   },
   {
    "id": "pensioner",
    "label": "Pensioner",
    "values": {
     "2024-25": 14.21,
     "2025-26": 15.33,
     "2026-27": 16.32,
     "2027-28": 16.72,
     "2028-29": 17.4,
     "2029-30": 18.53,
     "2030-31": 19.96
    }
   }
  ],
  "totalRange": [
   {
    "year": "2023-24",
    "low": 296.3,
    "high": 296.35,
    "editions": 2
   },
   {
    "year": "2024-25",
    "low": 313.04,
    "high": 314.76,
    "editions": 4
   },
   {
    "year": "2025-26",
    "low": 326.13,
    "high": 332.99,
    "editions": 4
   },
   {
    "year": "2026-27",
    "low": 340.49,
    "high": 352.79,
    "editions": 4
   },
   {
    "year": "2027-28",
    "low": 348.83,
    "high": 363.06,
    "editions": 4
   },
   {
    "year": "2028-29",
    "low": 358.51,
    "high": 373.81,
    "editions": 4
   },
   {
    "year": "2029-30",
    "low": 373.4,
    "high": 389.92,
    "editions": 4
   },
   {
    "year": "2030-31",
    "low": 406.21,
    "high": 406.91,
    "editions": 2
   }
  ],
  "rules": {
   "edition": "November 2025",
   "published": "2025-11-26",
   "file": "https://obr.uk/download/november-2025-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-charts-and-tables-chapter-7/",
   "targets": [
    {
     "id": "current-budget",
     "label": "Current budget to be in surplus by 2029-3",
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "March 2025 forecast",
       "percentGdp": 0.28,
       "marginPercentGdp": 0.28,
       "billions": 9.93,
       "marginBillions": 9.93,
       "probability": 54
      },
      {
       "label": "November 2025 pre-measures forecast",
       "percentGdp": 0.12,
       "marginPercentGdp": 0.12,
       "billions": 4.18,
       "marginBillions": 4.18,
       "probability": 52
      },
      {
       "label": "November 2025 forecast",
       "percentGdp": 0.62,
       "marginPercentGdp": 0.62,
       "billions": 21.7,
       "marginBillions": 21.7,
       "probability": 59
      },
      {
       "label": "Memo: excluding fuel duty rises",
       "percentGdp": 0.51,
       "marginPercentGdp": 0.51,
       "billions": 17.8,
       "marginBillions": 17.8,
       "probability": null
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "psnfl",
     "label": "Change in public sector net financial liabilities in 2029-3",
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "March 2025 forecast",
       "percentGdp": -0.42,
       "marginPercentGdp": 0.42,
       "billions": null,
       "marginBillions": 15.1,
       "probability": 51
      },
      {
       "label": "November 2025 pre-measures forecast",
       "percentGdp": -0.31,
       "marginPercentGdp": 0.31,
       "billions": null,
       "marginBillions": 11.09,
       "probability": 51
      },
      {
       "label": "November 2025 forecast",
       "percentGdp": -0.68,
       "marginPercentGdp": 0.68,
       "billions": null,
       "marginBillions": 24.35,
       "probability": 52
      },
      {
       "label": "Memo: excluding fuel duty rises",
       "percentGdp": -0.58,
       "marginPercentGdp": 0.58,
       "billions": null,
       "marginBillions": 20.69,
       "probability": null
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "welfare-cap",
     "label": "Welfare cap: specified welfare spending in 2029-3",
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "March 2025 forecast",
       "percentGdp": null,
       "marginPercentGdp": null,
       "billions": 190.7,
       "marginBillions": 13.52,
       "probability": null
      },
      {
       "label": "November 2025 forecast",
       "percentGdp": null,
       "marginPercentGdp": null,
       "billions": 202.3,
       "marginBillions": 1.92,
       "probability": null
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  "ucFraudError": {
   "outturn": {
    "2019-20": 9.39,
    "2020-21": 14.51,
    "2021-22": 14.67,
    "2022-23": 12.68,
    "2023-24": 12.36,
    "2024-25": 9.7,
    "2025-26": 9.1
   },
   "forecast": {
    "2025-26": 9.1,
    "2026-27": 8.2,
    "2027-28": 7.7,
    "2028-29": 7.5,
    "2029-30": 7.5,
    "2030-31": 7.9
   },
   "forecastLabel": "March 2026 forecast",
   "source": "https://obr.uk/download/june-2026-welfare-trends-report-charts-and-tables/"
  },
  "longTerm": {
   "statePension": [
    {
     "id": "march-2026-forecast",
     "label": "March 2026 forecast",
     "values": {
      "2025-26": 4.79,
      "2026-27": 4.87,
      "2027-28": 4.85,
      "2028-29": 4.84,
      "2029-30": 4.91,
      "2030-31": 4.98
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "baseline-projection-triple-lock-uprating",
     "label": "Baseline projection, triple lock uprating",
     "values": {
      "2030-31": 4.98,
      "2031-32": 5.04,
      "2032-33": 5.13,
      "2033-34": 5.23,
      "2034-35": 5.33,
      "2035-36": 5.43,
      "2036-37": 5.51,
      "2037-38": 5.5,
      "2038-39": 5.43,
      "2039-40": 5.44,
      "2040-41": 5.51,
      "2041-42": 5.58,
      "2042-43": 5.63,
      "2043-44": 5.69,
      "2044-45": 5.74,
      "2045-46": 5.78,
      "2046-47": 5.83,
      "2047-48": 5.91,
      "2048-49": 6,
      "2049-50": 6.09,
      "2050-51": 6.17,
      "2051-52": 6.26,
      "2052-53": 6.36,
      "2053-54": 6.46,
      "2054-55": 6.56,
      "2055-56": 6.67,
      "2056-57": 6.78,
      "2057-58": 6.9,
      "2058-59": 7.02,
      "2059-60": 7.14,
      "2060-61": 7.26,
      "2061-62": 7.38,
      "2062-63": 7.5,
      "2063-64": 7.62,
      "2064-65": 7.74,
      "2065-66": 7.87,
      "2066-67": 8,
      "2067-68": 8.13,
      "2068-69": 8.24,
      "2069-70": 8.34,
      "2070-71": 8.44,
      "2071-72": 8.55,
      "2072-73": 8.66,
      "2073-74": 8.67,
      "2074-75": 8.59,
      "2075-76": 8.61
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "cpi-uprating",
     "label": "CPI uprating",
     "values": {
      "2030-31": 4.98,
      "2031-32": 4.99,
      "2032-33": 5.01,
      "2033-34": 5.01,
      "2034-35": 5.01,
      "2035-36": 5,
      "2036-37": 4.97,
      "2037-38": 4.86,
      "2038-39": 4.7,
      "2039-40": 4.6,
      "2040-41": 4.56,
      "2041-42": 4.52,
      "2042-43": 4.46,
      "2043-44": 4.4,
      "2044-45": 4.34,
      "2045-46": 4.28,
      "2046-47": 4.22,
      "2047-48": 4.18,
      "2048-49": 4.15,
      "2049-50": 4.12,
      "2050-51": 4.08,
      "2051-52": 4.05,
      "2052-53": 4.02,
      "2053-54": 3.99,
      "2054-55": 3.97,
      "2055-56": 3.94,
      "2056-57": 3.92,
      "2057-58": 3.9,
      "2058-59": 3.88,
      "2059-60": 3.86,
      "2060-61": 3.84,
      "2061-62": 3.82,
      "2062-63": 3.79,
      "2063-64": 3.77,
      "2064-65": 3.74,
      "2065-66": 3.72,
      "2066-67": 3.7,
      "2067-68": 3.67,
      "2068-69": 3.64,
      "2069-70": 3.61,
      "2070-71": 3.57,
      "2071-72": 3.53,
      "2072-73": 3.5,
      "2073-74": 3.42,
      "2074-75": 3.32,
      "2075-76": 3.25
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "average-earnings-uprating",
     "label": "Average earnings uprating",
     "values": {
      "2030-31": 4.98,
      "2031-32": 5.03,
      "2032-33": 5.1,
      "2033-34": 5.17,
      "2034-35": 5.25,
      "2035-36": 5.31,
      "2036-37": 5.36,
      "2037-38": 5.33,
      "2038-39": 5.23,
      "2039-40": 5.21,
      "2040-41": 5.25,
      "2041-42": 5.28,
      "2042-43": 5.31,
      "2043-44": 5.33,
      "2044-45": 5.35,
      "2045-46": 5.36,
      "2046-47": 5.38,
      "2047-48": 5.42,
      "2048-49": 5.47,
      "2049-50": 5.52,
      "2050-51": 5.57,
      "2051-52": 5.62,
      "2052-53": 5.68,
      "2053-54": 5.74,
      "2054-55": 5.8,
      "2055-56": 5.86,
      "2056-57": 5.93,
      "2057-58": 6,
      "2058-59": 6.07,
      "2059-60": 6.14,
      "2060-61": 6.21,
      "2061-62": 6.28,
      "2062-63": 6.35,
      "2063-64": 6.42,
      "2064-65": 6.48,
      "2065-66": 6.56,
      "2066-67": 6.63,
      "2067-68": 6.7,
      "2068-69": 6.75,
      "2069-70": 6.8,
      "2070-71": 6.85,
      "2071-72": 6.9,
      "2072-73": 6.95,
      "2073-74": 6.92,
      "2074-75": 6.82,
      "2075-76": 6.79
     }
    }
   ],
   "otherWelfare": [
    {
     "id": "outturn-and-march-2026-forecast",
     "label": "Outturn and March 2026 forecast",
     "values": {
      "1978-79": 4.11,
      "1979-80": 4.19,
      "1980-81": 4.39,
      "1981-82": 5.03,
      "1982-83": 5.3,
      "1983-84": 5.43,
      "1984-85": 5.58,
      "1985-86": 5.61,
      "1986-87": 5.52,
      "1987-88": 5.1,
      "1988-89": 4.61,
      "1989-90": 4.38,
      "1990-92": 4.59,
      "1991-92": 5.49,
      "1992-93": 6.3,
      "1993-94": 6.68,
      "1994-95": 6.65,
      "1995-96": 6.6,
      "1996-97": 6.22,
      "1997-98": 5.92,
      "1998-99": 5.71,
      "1999-00": 5.69,
      "2000-01": 5.84,
      "2001-02": 5.92,
      "2002-03": 5.86,
      "2003-04": 6.3,
      "2004-05": 6.77,
      "2005-06": 6.7,
      "2006-07": 6.56,
      "2007-08": 6.57,
      "2008-09": 7.12,
      "2009-10": 7.98,
      "2010-11": 7.9,
      "2011-12": 7.8,
      "2012-13": 7.68,
      "2013-14": 6.99,
      "2014-15": 6.75,
      "2015-16": 6.56,
      "2016-17": 6.23,
      "2017-18": 5.96,
      "2018-19": 5.79,
      "2019-20": 5.71,
      "2020-21": 6.79,
      "2021-22": 5.84,
      "2022-23": 5.42,
      "2023-24": 5.8,
      "2024-25": 6.07,
      "2025-26": 6.11,
      "2026-27": 6.28,
      "2027-28": 6.23,
      "2028-29": 6.19,
      "2029-30": 6.21,
      "2030-31": 6.23
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "baseline-scenario",
     "label": "Baseline scenario",
     "values": {
      "2030-31": 6.23,
      "2031-32": 6.18,
      "2032-33": 6.14,
      "2033-34": 6.12,
      "2034-35": 6.1,
      "2035-36": 6.07,
      "2036-37": 6.05,
      "2037-38": 6.04,
      "2038-39": 6.04,
      "2039-40": 6.03,
      "2040-41": 6.02,
      "2041-42": 6.03,
      "2042-43": 6.04,
      "2043-44": 6.05,
      "2044-45": 6.06,
      "2045-46": 6.07,
      "2046-47": 6.09,
      "2047-48": 6.11,
      "2048-49": 6.12,
      "2049-50": 6.13,
      "2050-51": 6.15,
      "2051-52": 6.16,
      "2052-53": 6.17,
      "2053-54": 6.18,
      "2054-55": 6.19,
      "2055-56": 6.19,
      "2056-57": 6.2,
      "2057-58": 6.21,
      "2058-59": 6.21,
      "2059-60": 6.21,
      "2060-61": 6.22,
      "2061-62": 6.22,
      "2062-63": 6.23,
      "2063-64": 6.24,
      "2064-65": 6.24,
      "2065-66": 6.25,
      "2066-67": 6.26,
      "2067-68": 6.27,
      "2068-69": 6.28,
      "2069-70": 6.29,
      "2070-71": 6.3,
      "2071-72": 6.31,
      "2072-73": 6.32,
      "2073-74": 6.35,
      "2074-75": 6.37,
      "2075-76": 6.39
     }
    },
    {
     "id": "cpi-uprating",
     "label": "CPI uprating",
     "values": {
      "2030-31": 6.23,
      "2031-32": 6.14,
      "2032-33": 6.03,
      "2033-34": 5.93,
      "2034-35": 5.82,
      "2035-36": 5.72,
      "2036-37": 5.6,
      "2037-38": 5.51,
      "2038-39": 5.43,
      "2039-40": 5.33,
      "2040-41": 5.24,
      "2041-42": 5.15,
      "2042-43": 5.07,
      "2043-44": 4.99,
      "2044-45": 4.92,
      "2045-46": 4.85,
      "2046-47": 4.78,
      "2047-48": 4.71,
      "2048-49": 4.64,
      "2049-50": 4.57,
      "2050-51": 4.5,
      "2051-52": 4.44,
      "2052-53": 4.37,
      "2053-54": 4.3,
      "2054-55": 4.24,
      "2055-56": 4.17,
      "2056-57": 4.1,
      "2057-58": 4.04,
      "2058-59": 3.97,
      "2059-60": 3.91,
      "2060-61": 3.84,
      "2061-62": 3.78,
      "2062-63": 3.72,
      "2063-64": 3.66,
      "2064-65": 3.61,
      "2065-66": 3.55,
      "2066-67": 3.49,
      "2067-68": 3.44,
      "2068-69": 3.39,
      "2069-70": 3.33,
      "2070-71": 3.28,
      "2071-72": 3.23,
      "2072-73": 3.18,
      "2073-74": 3.14,
      "2074-75": 3.1,
      "2075-76": 3.06
     }
    }
   ],
   "edition": "Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2026"
  },
  "next": {
   "title": "October 2026 forecast timetable",
   "url": "https://obr.uk/october-2026-forecast-timetable/",
   "published": "2026-09-10",
   "date": "2026-10-28"
  },
  "newerAvailable": null,
  "hand": {
   "caseloads": [
    {
     "id": "incapacity-caseload",
     "label": "People receiving incapacity benefits (UC health element and ESA)",
     "value": 3.4,
     "unit": "people",
     "period": "2024-25",
     "high": 4,
     "source": "Office for Budget Responsibility, Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2026",
     "url": "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/",
     "where": "Chapter 4, welfare spending",
     "published": "2026-03-03",
     "note": "Millions. The OBR forecasts 4.0 million in 2030-31."
    },
    {
     "id": "disability-caseload",
     "label": "People receiving disability benefits (PIP, DLA and Attendance Allowance)",
     "value": 6.5,
     "unit": "people",
     "period": "2024-25",
     "high": 8.8,
     "source": "Office for Budget Responsibility, Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2026",
     "url": "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/",
     "where": "Chapter 4, welfare spending",
     "published": "2026-03-03",
     "note": "Millions. The OBR forecasts 8.8 million in 2030-31."
    }
   ],
   "reforms": [
    {
     "title": "Universal Credit Act 2025",
     "date": "2025-09-03",
     "claimed": "DWP's impact assessment puts the health element changes at a saving of £2,060 million in 2029-30 and the higher standard allowance at a cost of £1,850 million that year.",
     "status": "In force from April 2026.",
     "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/689ca49e1c63de6de5bb1298/withdrawn-universal-credit-bill-uc-rebalancing-impact-assessment.pdf",
     "assessments": [
      {
       "who": "Office for Budget Responsibility",
       "url": "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/",
       "text": "The OBR's forecast includes the Act; Table 4.2 of Budget 2025 re-costs it at the time of that Budget."
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "title": "Personal Independence Payment eligibility changes (not proceeding)",
     "date": "2025-11-26",
     "claimed": "The Spring Statement 2025 changes to PIP eligibility would have reduced spending by about £5.3 billion a year by 2030-31; at Budget 2025 the government confirmed they would not go ahead.",
     "status": "Withdrawn. A review of PIP (the Timms review) published an interim report on 9 July 2026 and is due to make final recommendations in autumn 2026.",
     "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/the-timms-review",
     "assessments": [
      {
       "who": "HM Treasury, Budget 2025 Table 4.1 line 83",
       "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2025",
       "text": "Not proceeding costs £5,345 million in 2030-31 against the earlier plans."
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "panels": [
    {
     "question": "Is the growth in welfare spending sustainable?",
     "a": {
      "heading": "Those who say spending growth needs to be brought down",
      "views": [
       {
        "who": "Andy Burnham, Prime Minister",
        "org": "HM Government",
        "date": "2026-06-15",
        "url": "https://benefitsandwork.co.uk/news/burnham-not-squeamish-about-reducing-welfare-bill",
        "quote": "I am not squeamish about saying that the plan would be to reduce the welfare bill.",
        "verified": true,
        "note": "From an interview with The Times, as quoted by Benefits and Work."
       },
       {
        "who": "Nigel Farage and Robert Jenrick",
        "org": "Reform UK",
        "date": "2026-08-16",
        "url": "https://www.reformparty.uk/making-welfare-work-document.pdf",
        "quote": "Our constituents who need and rely on PIP should, and will, see their awards protected, but the system as a whole is not sustainable.",
        "verified": true
       },
       {
        "who": "Lord Hannan, Director-General",
        "org": "Institute of Economic Affairs",
        "date": "2026-08-17",
        "url": "https://iea.org.uk/media/iea-responds-to-reform-uks-welfare-proposals/",
        "quote": "With millions of working-age people economically inactive and the cost of sickness and disability benefits continuing to soar, doing nothing is no longer an option.",
        "verified": true
       },
       {
        "who": "Joe Shalam, Policy Director",
        "org": "Centre for Social Justice",
        "date": "2026-03-07",
        "url": "https://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/newsroom/18bn-welfare-surge",
        "quote": "We already spend more on health related benefits than the entire defence budget.",
        "verified": true
       },
       {
        "who": "Kemi Badenoch, Leader of the Opposition",
        "org": "Conservative Party",
        "date": "2025-07-10",
        "url": "https://www.kemibadenoch.org.uk/news/kemi-badenochs-speech-welfare-spending-centre-social-justice",
        "quote": "The system is unsustainable and this threatens all the good it was designed to do.",
        "verified": true
       }
      ]
     },
     "b": {
      "heading": "Those who say the rise reflects pensions and health, or that cuts would cause hardship",
      "views": [
       {
        "who": "Alex Clegg",
        "org": "Resolution Foundation",
        "date": "2025-11-25",
        "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/is-welfare-spending-out-of-control/",
        "quote": "First, £21 billion of it comes from spending on pensioners, mostly because of the triple lock on the State Pension and the growing pensioner population.",
        "verified": true
       },
       {
        "who": "Iain Porter and Sam Tims",
        "org": "Joseph Rowntree Foundation",
        "date": "2026-07-20",
        "url": "https://www.jrf.org.uk/social-security/how-to-reduce-pressure-on-welfare-spend-in-a-popular-and-lasting-way",
        "quote": "Evidence from recent benefit cuts show they had little or no employment impacts, but worsened hardship and health, damaging future employment prospects and shifting costs elsewhere.",
        "verified": true
       },
       {
        "who": "Disability Rights UK",
        "org": "Disability Rights UK",
        "date": "2026-08-17",
        "url": "https://www.disabilityrightsuk.org/news/disability-rights-uk-statement-reforms-attack-disabled-people",
        "quote": "At a time when society continues to be extremely inaccessible to us in terms of transport, housing, information and environment, and when public services are letting us down, PIP is an absolute lifeline.",
        "verified": true
       },
       {
        "who": "Alison Garnham, Chief Executive",
        "org": "Child Poverty Action Group",
        "date": "2025-03-13",
        "url": "https://cpag.org.uk/news/cuts-disability-benefits-would-undermine-government-plans-tackle-child-poverty-warns-charity",
        "quote": "Disability benefit cuts would only make life harder for these and many more families, undermining the government’s forthcoming child poverty strategy.",
        "verified": true
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  }
 },
 "notes": [
  "All money figures are £ billion in cash terms (not adjusted for inflation), as the OBR publishes them.",
  "Each forecast is labelled with the edition it comes from. Earlier editions are kept so the change between forecasts can be shown: the range across editions is how far the forecast has moved, not a statistical confidence interval.",
  "The welfare cap covers most working-age and disability benefits; the state pension and the part of universal credit linked to unemployment are outside it.",
  "Years are financial years. The first years in each edition are outturn; the rest are forecasts."
 ]
}