# Longer-term pressures: spending, tax and debt over fifty years

url: https://whereyourmoneygoes.co.uk/long-term-public-finances/
updated: 29 September 2026
licence: Our words, analysis, charts and derived calculations: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), credit [Tekstak Ltd](https://tek-stak.co.uk). Figures: each source's own licence, listed under Sources.
publisher: [Tekstak Ltd](https://tek-stak.co.uk)

# Longer-term pressures: spending, tax and debt over fifty years



Last updated 29 September 2026.
Figures refresh every night. [How each figure is worked out](/methodology/).





In the Office for Budget Responsibility’s latest projections (July 2026), public sector net debt rises from about **95%** of GDP in 2030-31 to about **300%** in 2075-76 if today’s policies were kept unchanged, as spending on health, pensions and debt interest grows faster than tax receipts (primary spending 41% to 49% of GDP). The OBR says such a path could not actually happen: it shows the size of the pressure, not a prediction.



Figure as of 7 July 2026. Source:
[Office for Budget Responsibility](https://obr.uk/frs/fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-july-2026/).





## Key figures



- 300%Net debt, % of GDP, 2075-76 (projection)

OBR, July 2026
As of 7 July 2026
- 12.2%Net debt interest, % of GDP, 2075-76 (projection)


As of 7 July 2026
- 13.5%Health spending, % of GDP, 2075-76 (projection)


As of 7 July 2026
- 8.6%State Pension, % of GDP, 2075-76 (projection)


As of 7 July 2026




Source: [Office for Budget Responsibility](https://obr.uk/frs/fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-july-2026/).





## What is the short version?



- **Forecast, projection, scenario, commentary:** this page uses all four and labels each. Only the first five years are a forecast.
- **The projections assume nothing changes** for fifty years. They show where pressures build, not what will happen.
- **The pressures are ageing, health, pensions and debt interest,** and fuel duty disappearing as cars go electric.
- **Economists disagree** on how soon to act and on whether the fiscal rules are the right tool; named views are below.






## Forecast, projection, scenario or commentary




The four kinds of figure on this page



- Forecast
Who makes itThe OBR, twice a year
The expected path over the next five years, given current policy and the economy.
- Projection
Who makes itThe OBR, once a year
Where current policy would lead over fifty years if nothing changed. Not expected to happen.
- Scenario
Who makes itThe OBR
A projection with one assumption changed, such as higher productivity or a different pension rule.
- Commentary
Who makes itNamed sources, quoted with dates
What an economist, think tank or politician thinks the figures mean.





Projection: Office for Budget Responsibility, Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2026, published 7 July 2026





## Debt over fifty years




**Public sector net debt under the OBR’s baseline and scenarios, % of GDP**








Every line is a projection, not a forecast. Scenarios change one assumption at a time. The OBR also publishes scenarios with higher borrowing and market shocks, which rise much further; they are in the table below the chart.




**The numbers behind this chart**



Search




| Year | Baseline projection | Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit | Scenario: Higher population | Scenario: Higher productivity | Scenario: Lower productivity |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2025-26Details | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit94%Scenario: Higher population94%Scenario: Higher productivity94%Scenario: Lower productivity94% | | | | | |
| 2026-27Details | 95% | 96% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit96%Scenario: Higher population95%Scenario: Higher productivity95%Scenario: Lower productivity95% | | | | | |
| 2027-28Details | 96% | 98% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit98%Scenario: Higher population96%Scenario: Higher productivity96%Scenario: Lower productivity96% | | | | | |
| 2028-29Details | 96% | 100% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit100%Scenario: Higher population96%Scenario: Higher productivity96%Scenario: Lower productivity96% | | | | | |
| 2029-30Details | 96% | 102% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit102%Scenario: Higher population96%Scenario: Higher productivity96%Scenario: Lower productivity96% | | | | | |
| 2030-31Details | 95% | 103% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit103%Scenario: Higher population95%Scenario: Higher productivity95%Scenario: Lower productivity95% | | | | | |
| 2031-32Details | 95% | 105% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit105%Scenario: Higher population95%Scenario: Higher productivity95%Scenario: Lower productivity95% | | | | | |
| 2032-33Details | 95% | 108% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit108%Scenario: Higher population95%Scenario: Higher productivity95%Scenario: Lower productivity95% | | | | | |
| 2033-34Details | 95% | 112% | 95% | 95% | 96% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit112%Scenario: Higher population95%Scenario: Higher productivity95%Scenario: Lower productivity96% | | | | | |
| 2034-35Details | 96% | 116% | 96% | 96% | 98% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit116%Scenario: Higher population96%Scenario: Higher productivity96%Scenario: Lower productivity98% | | | | | |
| 2035-36Details | 98% | 120% | 98% | 97% | 100% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit120%Scenario: Higher population98%Scenario: Higher productivity97%Scenario: Lower productivity100% | | | | | |
| 2036-37Details | 99% | 125% | 99% | 98% | 102% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit125%Scenario: Higher population99%Scenario: Higher productivity98%Scenario: Lower productivity102% | | | | | |
| 2037-38Details | 101% | 130% | 101% | 99% | 105% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit130%Scenario: Higher population101%Scenario: Higher productivity99%Scenario: Lower productivity105% | | | | | |
| 2038-39Details | 102% | 135% | 102% | 100% | 109% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit135%Scenario: Higher population102%Scenario: Higher productivity100%Scenario: Lower productivity109% | | | | | |
| 2039-40Details | 104% | 140% | 104% | 101% | 112% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit140%Scenario: Higher population104%Scenario: Higher productivity101%Scenario: Lower productivity112% | | | | | |
| 2040-41Details | 106% | 145% | 106% | 102% | 117% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit145%Scenario: Higher population106%Scenario: Higher productivity102%Scenario: Lower productivity117% | | | | | |
| 2041-42Details | 108% | 151% | 109% | 103% | 122% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit151%Scenario: Higher population109%Scenario: Higher productivity103%Scenario: Lower productivity122% | | | | | |
| 2042-43Details | 110% | 156% | 111% | 104% | 127% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit156%Scenario: Higher population111%Scenario: Higher productivity104%Scenario: Lower productivity127% | | | | | |
| 2043-44Details | 112% | 162% | 114% | 104% | 133% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit162%Scenario: Higher population114%Scenario: Higher productivity104%Scenario: Lower productivity133% | | | | | |
| 2044-45Details | 115% | 169% | 117% | 105% | 139% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit169%Scenario: Higher population117%Scenario: Higher productivity105%Scenario: Lower productivity139% | | | | | |
| 2045-46Details | 117% | 175% | 120% | 106% | 146% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit175%Scenario: Higher population120%Scenario: Higher productivity106%Scenario: Lower productivity146% | | | | | |
| 2046-47Details | 120% | 181% | 123% | 107% | 154% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit181%Scenario: Higher population123%Scenario: Higher productivity107%Scenario: Lower productivity154% | | | | | |
| 2047-48Details | 123% | 188% | 127% | 108% | 162% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit188%Scenario: Higher population127%Scenario: Higher productivity108%Scenario: Lower productivity162% | | | | | |
| 2048-49Details | 126% | 195% | 131% | 109% | 170% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit195%Scenario: Higher population131%Scenario: Higher productivity109%Scenario: Lower productivity170% | | | | | |
| 2049-50Details | 129% | 202% | 135% | 110% | 180% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit202%Scenario: Higher population135%Scenario: Higher productivity110%Scenario: Lower productivity180% | | | | | |
| 2050-51Details | 133% | 210% | 140% | 112% | 190% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit210%Scenario: Higher population140%Scenario: Higher productivity112%Scenario: Lower productivity190% | | | | | |
| 2051-52Details | 137% | 218% | 144% | 113% | 201% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit218%Scenario: Higher population144%Scenario: Higher productivity113%Scenario: Lower productivity201% | | | | | |
| 2052-53Details | 141% | 226% | 149% | 114% | 212% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit226%Scenario: Higher population149%Scenario: Higher productivity114%Scenario: Lower productivity212% | | | | | |
| 2053-54Details | 145% | 234% | 155% | 116% | 224% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit234%Scenario: Higher population155%Scenario: Higher productivity116%Scenario: Lower productivity224% | | | | | |
| 2054-55Details | 149% | 242% | 160% | 118% | 237% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit242%Scenario: Higher population160%Scenario: Higher productivity118%Scenario: Lower productivity237% | | | | | |
| 2055-56Details | 154% | 251% | 166% | 119% | 251% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit251%Scenario: Higher population166%Scenario: Higher productivity119%Scenario: Lower productivity251% | | | | | |
| 2056-57Details | 159% | 260% | 173% | 121% | 265% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit260%Scenario: Higher population173%Scenario: Higher productivity121%Scenario: Lower productivity265% | | | | | |
| 2057-58Details | 164% | 270% | 179% | 123% | 281% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit270%Scenario: Higher population179%Scenario: Higher productivity123%Scenario: Lower productivity281% | | | | | |
| 2058-59Details | 170% | 280% | 186% | 126% | 297% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit280%Scenario: Higher population186%Scenario: Higher productivity126%Scenario: Lower productivity297% | | | | | |
| 2059-60Details | 175% | 290% | 193% | 128% | 314% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit290%Scenario: Higher population193%Scenario: Higher productivity128%Scenario: Lower productivity314% | | | | | |
| 2060-61Details | 181% | 300% | 201% | 130% | 331% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit300%Scenario: Higher population201%Scenario: Higher productivity130%Scenario: Lower productivity331% | | | | | |
| 2061-62Details | 187% | 310% | 209% | 133% | 350% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit310%Scenario: Higher population209%Scenario: Higher productivity133%Scenario: Lower productivity350% | | | | | |
| 2062-63Details | 194% | 321% | 217% | 135% | 369% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit321%Scenario: Higher population217%Scenario: Higher productivity135%Scenario: Lower productivity369% | | | | | |
| 2063-64Details | 201% | 332% | 225% | 138% | 390% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit332%Scenario: Higher population225%Scenario: Higher productivity138%Scenario: Lower productivity390% | | | | | |
| 2064-65Details | 208% | 344% | 233% | 141% | 411% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit344%Scenario: Higher population233%Scenario: Higher productivity141%Scenario: Lower productivity411% | | | | | |
| 2065-66Details | 215% | 356% | 242% | 144% | 433% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit356%Scenario: Higher population242%Scenario: Higher productivity144%Scenario: Lower productivity433% | | | | | |
| 2066-67Details | 222% | 367% | 251% | 147% | 456% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit367%Scenario: Higher population251%Scenario: Higher productivity147%Scenario: Lower productivity456% | | | | | |
| 2067-68Details | 230% | 380% | 260% | 151% | 480% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit380%Scenario: Higher population260%Scenario: Higher productivity151%Scenario: Lower productivity480% | | | | | |
| 2068-69Details | 238% | 392% | 269% | 154% | 505% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit392%Scenario: Higher population269%Scenario: Higher productivity154%Scenario: Lower productivity505% | | | | | |
| 2069-70Details | 246% | 404% | 278% | 157% | 531% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit404%Scenario: Higher population278%Scenario: Higher productivity157%Scenario: Lower productivity531% | | | | | |
| 2070-71Details | 254% | 417% | 287% | 161% | 557% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit417%Scenario: Higher population287%Scenario: Higher productivity161%Scenario: Lower productivity557% | | | | | |
| 2071-72Details | 263% | 430% | 296% | 165% | 585% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit430%Scenario: Higher population296%Scenario: Higher productivity165%Scenario: Lower productivity585% | | | | | |
| 2072-73Details | 272% | 444% | 307% | 169% | 614% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit444%Scenario: Higher population307%Scenario: Higher productivity169%Scenario: Lower productivity614% | | | | | |
| 2073-74Details | 281% | 457% | 317% | 173% | 643% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit457%Scenario: Higher population317%Scenario: Higher productivity173%Scenario: Lower productivity643% | | | | | |
| 2074-75Details | 291% | 471% | 328% | 178% | 674% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit471%Scenario: Higher population328%Scenario: Higher productivity178%Scenario: Lower productivity674% | | | | | |
| 2075-76Details | 300% | 486% | 339% | 182% | 706% |
| Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit486%Scenario: Higher population339%Scenario: Higher productivity182%Scenario: Lower productivity706% | | | | | |















| Scenario | Group | 2075-76 |
| --- | --- | --- |
| BaselineDetails | debt dynamics scenarios | 300% |
| Groupdebt dynamics scenarios | | |
| Higher medium-term primary deficitDetails | debt dynamics scenarios | 486% |
| Groupdebt dynamics scenarios | | |
| Higher medium-term primary deficit plus shocksDetails | debt dynamics scenarios | 536% |
| Groupdebt dynamics scenarios | | |
| Higher medium-term primary deficit, shocks and responsive interest rateDetails | debt dynamics scenarios | 1,019% |
| Groupdebt dynamics scenarios | | |
| Higher populationDetails | higher population scenario | 339% |
| Grouphigher population scenario | | |
| Higher productivityDetails | productivity scenarios | 182% |
| Groupproductivity scenarios | | |
| Lower productivityDetails | productivity scenarios | 706% |
| Groupproductivity scenarios | | |
| Higher productivity with constant primary-spending-to-GDP assumptionDetails | productivity scenarios | 269% |
| Groupproductivity scenarios | | |
| CPI uprating of personal tax thresholdsDetails | alternative long-term policy assumption scenarios | 152% |
| Groupalternative long-term policy assumption scenarios | | |
| No extra cost pressures in health spendingDetails | alternative long-term policy assumption scenarios | 192% |
| Groupalternative long-term policy assumption scenarios | | |
| CPI uprating of non-state pension welfareDetails | alternative long-term policy assumption scenarios | 210% |
| Groupalternative long-term policy assumption scenarios | | |
| Earnings uprating of the state pensionDetails | alternative long-term policy assumption scenarios | 260% |
| Groupalternative long-term policy assumption scenarios | | |







## What drives it



The OBR breaks down the rise in borrowing between 2030-31 and 2075-76 in its baseline.
Debt interest grows as debt grows; health and the State Pension grow with an older population.




**Contributions to the rise in borrowing to 2075-76, percentage points of GDP (projection)**



- 1. Net interest spending

9.09
- 2. Health spending

5.10
- 3. State pension spending

3.63
- 4. Net zero-affected taxes

1.02
- 5. Defence

0.75
- 6. Other primary spending

−0.66
- 7. Other receipts

−1.03





Negative figures reduce borrowing. Projection from the OBR baseline.




**Show as a table**





| Name | Percentage points of GDP |
| --- | --- |
| 1. Net interest spending | 9.09 |
| 2. Health spending | 5.10 |
| 3. State pension spending | 3.63 |
| 4. Net zero-affected taxes | 1.02 |
| 5. Defence | 0.75 |
| 6. Other primary spending | −0.66 |
| 7. Other receipts | −1.03 |










| Item | 2025-26 | 2030-31 | 2075-76 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| HealthDetails | 8.4% | 8.4% | 13.5% |
| 2030-318.4%2075-7613.5% | | | |
| Adult social careDetails | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% |
| 2030-311.2%2075-761.8% | | | |
| EducationDetails | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% |
| 2030-314.3%2075-763.4% | | | |
| State pensionDetails | 4.8% | 5.0% | 8.6% |
| 2030-315.0%2075-768.6% | | | |
| Other welfare benefitsDetails | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% |
| 2030-316.2%2075-766.4% | | | |
| Public service pensionsDetails | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| 2030-311.2%2075-760.9% | | | |
| Total age-related spendingDetails | 26.3% | 26.2% | 34.6% |
| 2030-3126.2%2075-7634.6% | | | |
| DefenceDetails | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% |
| 2030-312.8%2075-763.5% | | | |
| Net zero transition spendingDetails | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 2030-310.3%2075-760.0% | | | |
| Other currentDetails | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| 2030-318.0%2075-768.0% | | | |
| Other capitalDetails | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| 2030-312.6%2075-762.6% | | | |
| Total primary spendingDetails | 40.5% | 39.8% | 48.7% |
| 2030-3139.8%2075-7648.7% | | | |






**Health spending under the OBR’s variants, % of GDP**










**The numbers behind this chart**



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| Year | Baseline | No extra cost pressures in health spending | Lower healthy life expectancy | Higher healthy life expectancy |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2025-26Details | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.4%Lower healthy life expectancy8.4%Higher healthy life expectancy8.4% | | | | |
| 2026-27Details | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.3%Lower healthy life expectancy8.3%Higher healthy life expectancy8.3% | | | | |
| 2027-28Details | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.4%Lower healthy life expectancy8.5%Higher healthy life expectancy8.5% | | | | |
| 2028-29Details | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.5%Lower healthy life expectancy8.4%Higher healthy life expectancy8.4% | | | | |
| 2029-30Details | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.4%Lower healthy life expectancy8.4%Higher healthy life expectancy8.4% | | | | |
| 2030-31Details | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.4%Lower healthy life expectancy8.4%Higher healthy life expectancy8.4% | | | | |
| 2031-32Details | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.4%Lower healthy life expectancy8.5%Higher healthy life expectancy8.5% | | | | |
| 2032-33Details | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.5%Lower healthy life expectancy8.7%Higher healthy life expectancy8.6% | | | | |
| 2033-34Details | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.5%Lower healthy life expectancy8.8%Higher healthy life expectancy8.7% | | | | |
| 2034-35Details | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.5%Lower healthy life expectancy8.9%Higher healthy life expectancy8.8% | | | | |
| 2035-36Details | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.8% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.6%Lower healthy life expectancy9.1%Higher healthy life expectancy8.8% | | | | |
| 2036-37Details | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.6%Lower healthy life expectancy9.2%Higher healthy life expectancy8.9% | | | | |
| 2037-38Details | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.6%Lower healthy life expectancy9.4%Higher healthy life expectancy9.0% | | | | |
| 2038-39Details | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.6%Lower healthy life expectancy9.5%Higher healthy life expectancy9.1% | | | | |
| 2039-40Details | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.7%Lower healthy life expectancy9.6%Higher healthy life expectancy9.2% | | | | |
| 2040-41Details | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.3% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.7%Lower healthy life expectancy9.8%Higher healthy life expectancy9.3% | | | | |
| 2041-42Details | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.3% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.7%Lower healthy life expectancy9.9%Higher healthy life expectancy9.3% | | | | |
| 2042-43Details | 9.7% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.4% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.7%Lower healthy life expectancy10.0%Higher healthy life expectancy9.4% | | | | |
| 2043-44Details | 9.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.7%Lower healthy life expectancy10.2%Higher healthy life expectancy9.5% | | | | |
| 2044-45Details | 10.0% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.6% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy10.3%Higher healthy life expectancy9.6% | | | | |
| 2045-46Details | 10.1% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.7% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy10.5%Higher healthy life expectancy9.7% | | | | |
| 2046-47Details | 10.2% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.8% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy10.6%Higher healthy life expectancy9.8% | | | | |
| 2047-48Details | 10.3% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.8% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy10.8%Higher healthy life expectancy9.8% | | | | |
| 2048-49Details | 10.4% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy10.9%Higher healthy life expectancy9.9% | | | | |
| 2049-50Details | 10.5% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 10.0% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy11.1%Higher healthy life expectancy10.0% | | | | |
| 2050-51Details | 10.6% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 10.1% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy11.2%Higher healthy life expectancy10.1% | | | | |
| 2051-52Details | 10.7% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 10.1% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.9%Lower healthy life expectancy11.3%Higher healthy life expectancy10.1% | | | | |
| 2052-53Details | 10.9% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 10.2% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.9%Lower healthy life expectancy11.5%Higher healthy life expectancy10.2% | | | | |
| 2053-54Details | 11.0% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 10.3% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.9%Lower healthy life expectancy11.6%Higher healthy life expectancy10.3% | | | | |
| 2054-55Details | 11.1% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 10.4% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.9%Lower healthy life expectancy11.8%Higher healthy life expectancy10.4% | | | | |
| 2055-56Details | 11.2% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 10.4% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.9%Lower healthy life expectancy11.9%Higher healthy life expectancy10.4% | | | | |
| 2056-57Details | 11.3% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 10.5% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.9%Lower healthy life expectancy12.1%Higher healthy life expectancy10.5% | | | | |
| 2057-58Details | 11.4% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 10.6% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.9%Lower healthy life expectancy12.2%Higher healthy life expectancy10.6% | | | | |
| 2058-59Details | 11.5% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 10.6% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy12.3%Higher healthy life expectancy10.6% | | | | |
| 2059-60Details | 11.6% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 10.7% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy12.5%Higher healthy life expectancy10.7% | | | | |
| 2060-61Details | 11.7% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 10.8% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy12.6%Higher healthy life expectancy10.8% | | | | |
| 2061-62Details | 11.8% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 10.8% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy12.8%Higher healthy life expectancy10.8% | | | | |
| 2062-63Details | 11.9% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 10.9% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy12.9%Higher healthy life expectancy10.9% | | | | |
| 2063-64Details | 12.0% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 11.0% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy13.1%Higher healthy life expectancy11.0% | | | | |
| 2064-65Details | 12.1% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 11.0% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy13.2%Higher healthy life expectancy11.0% | | | | |
| 2065-66Details | 12.2% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 11.1% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy13.4%Higher healthy life expectancy11.1% | | | | |
| 2066-67Details | 12.3% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 11.2% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy13.6%Higher healthy life expectancy11.2% | | | | |
| 2067-68Details | 12.5% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 11.3% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy13.7%Higher healthy life expectancy11.3% | | | | |
| 2068-69Details | 12.6% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 11.3% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy13.9%Higher healthy life expectancy11.3% | | | | |
| 2069-70Details | 12.7% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 11.4% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy14.1%Higher healthy life expectancy11.4% | | | | |
| 2070-71Details | 12.8% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 11.5% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy14.3%Higher healthy life expectancy11.5% | | | | |
| 2071-72Details | 13.0% | 8.8% | 14.5% | 11.6% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.8%Lower healthy life expectancy14.5%Higher healthy life expectancy11.6% | | | | |
| 2072-73Details | 13.1% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 11.7% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.9%Lower healthy life expectancy14.6%Higher healthy life expectancy11.7% | | | | |
| 2073-74Details | 13.2% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 11.7% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.9%Lower healthy life expectancy14.8%Higher healthy life expectancy11.7% | | | | |
| 2074-75Details | 13.3% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 11.8% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.9%Lower healthy life expectancy15.0%Higher healthy life expectancy11.8% | | | | |
| 2075-76Details | 13.5% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 11.9% |
| No extra cost pressures in health spending8.9%Lower healthy life expectancy15.2%Higher healthy life expectancy11.9% | | | | |














**Fuel duty and the electric vehicle mileage charge, % of GDP**








Projections. See also [pay-per-mile for electric cars](/ev-pay-per-mile-tax/).




**The numbers behind this chart**



Search




| Year | Fuel duty | eVED (CPI uprating) | eVED (earnings uprating) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2025-26Details | 0.79% | — | — |
| eVED (CPI uprating)—eVED (earnings uprating)— | | | |
| 2026-27Details | 0.78% | — | — |
| eVED (CPI uprating)—eVED (earnings uprating)— | | | |
| 2027-28Details | 0.81% | — | — |
| eVED (CPI uprating)—eVED (earnings uprating)— | | | |
| 2028-29Details | 0.79% | 0.04% | 0.04% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.04%eVED (earnings uprating)0.04% | | | |
| 2029-30Details | 0.75% | 0.04% | 0.04% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.04%eVED (earnings uprating)0.04% | | | |
| 2030-31Details | 0.71% | 0.06% | 0.06% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.06%eVED (earnings uprating)0.06% | | | |
| 2031-32Details | 0.63% | 0.06% | 0.07% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.06%eVED (earnings uprating)0.07% | | | |
| 2032-33Details | 0.57% | 0.07% | 0.08% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.07%eVED (earnings uprating)0.08% | | | |
| 2033-34Details | 0.51% | 0.08% | 0.09% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.08%eVED (earnings uprating)0.09% | | | |
| 2034-35Details | 0.46% | 0.09% | 0.10% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.09%eVED (earnings uprating)0.10% | | | |
| 2035-36Details | 0.42% | 0.10% | 0.11% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.10%eVED (earnings uprating)0.11% | | | |
| 2036-37Details | 0.36% | 0.11% | 0.12% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.11%eVED (earnings uprating)0.12% | | | |
| 2037-38Details | 0.32% | 0.11% | 0.13% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.11%eVED (earnings uprating)0.13% | | | |
| 2038-39Details | 0.29% | 0.12% | 0.14% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.12%eVED (earnings uprating)0.14% | | | |
| 2039-40Details | 0.26% | 0.13% | 0.14% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.13%eVED (earnings uprating)0.14% | | | |
| 2040-41Details | 0.24% | 0.13% | 0.15% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.13%eVED (earnings uprating)0.15% | | | |
| 2041-42Details | 0.22% | 0.13% | 0.16% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.13%eVED (earnings uprating)0.16% | | | |
| 2042-43Details | 0.20% | 0.14% | 0.17% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.14%eVED (earnings uprating)0.17% | | | |
| 2043-44Details | 0.18% | 0.14% | 0.17% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.14%eVED (earnings uprating)0.17% | | | |
| 2044-45Details | 0.17% | 0.14% | 0.18% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.14%eVED (earnings uprating)0.18% | | | |
| 2045-46Details | 0.15% | 0.14% | 0.18% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.14%eVED (earnings uprating)0.18% | | | |
| 2046-47Details | 0.13% | 0.14% | 0.19% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.14%eVED (earnings uprating)0.19% | | | |
| 2047-48Details | 0.12% | 0.14% | 0.19% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.14%eVED (earnings uprating)0.19% | | | |
| 2048-49Details | 0.10% | 0.14% | 0.19% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.14%eVED (earnings uprating)0.19% | | | |
| 2049-50Details | 0.09% | 0.14% | 0.19% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.14%eVED (earnings uprating)0.19% | | | |
| 2050-51Details | 0.08% | 0.14% | 0.20% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.14%eVED (earnings uprating)0.20% | | | |
| 2051-52Details | 0.07% | 0.14% | 0.20% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.14%eVED (earnings uprating)0.20% | | | |
| 2052-53Details | 0.06% | 0.14% | 0.20% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.14%eVED (earnings uprating)0.20% | | | |
| 2053-54Details | 0.05% | 0.14% | 0.20% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.14%eVED (earnings uprating)0.20% | | | |
| 2054-55Details | 0.05% | 0.14% | 0.21% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.14%eVED (earnings uprating)0.21% | | | |
| 2055-56Details | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.21% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.14%eVED (earnings uprating)0.21% | | | |
| 2056-57Details | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.21% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.21% | | | |
| 2057-58Details | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.21% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.21% | | | |
| 2058-59Details | 0.02% | 0.15% | 0.22% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.22% | | | |
| 2059-60Details | 0.01% | 0.15% | 0.22% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.22% | | | |
| 2060-61Details | 0.01% | 0.15% | 0.22% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.22% | | | |
| 2061-62Details | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.22% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.22% | | | |
| 2062-63Details | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.22% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.22% | | | |
| 2063-64Details | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.22% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.22% | | | |
| 2064-65Details | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.22% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.22% | | | |
| 2065-66Details | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.23% | | | |
| 2066-67Details | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.23% | | | |
| 2067-68Details | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.23% | | | |
| 2068-69Details | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.23% | | | |
| 2069-70Details | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.23% | | | |
| 2070-71Details | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.23% | | | |
| 2071-72Details | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.23% | | | |
| 2072-73Details | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.23% | | | |
| 2073-74Details | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.23% | | | |
| 2074-75Details | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.23% | | | |
| 2075-76Details | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| eVED (CPI uprating)0.15%eVED (earnings uprating)0.23% | | | |















| Item | 2025-26 | 2030-31 | 2075-76 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Income taxDetails | 10.9% | 11.9% | 12.1% |
| 2030-3111.9%2075-7612.1% | | | |
| NICsDetails | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% |
| 2030-316.8%2075-766.5% | | | |
| VATDetails | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% |
| 2030-317.0%2075-767.3% | | | |
| Corporation taxDetails | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 2030-313.4%2075-763.4% | | | |
| Capital taxesDetails | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% |
| 2030-312.3%2075-763.1% | | | |
| Net zero-affected taxesDetails | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 2030-311.6%2075-760.6% | | | |
| Other receiptsDetails | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| 2030-318.4%2075-768.4% | | | |
| Total primary receiptsDetails | 39.1% | 41.3% | 41.3% |
| 2030-3141.3%2075-7641.3% | | | |
| Interest and dividendsDetails | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| 2030-311.4%2075-761.4% | | | |
| Total receiptsDetails | 40.4% | 42.7% | 42.7% |
| 2030-3142.7%2075-7642.7% | | | |







## The fiscal rules and the headroom against them



At its last assessment (November 2025, 26 November 2025), the OBR found the government met its
rule to balance day-to-day spending by
£21.7bn.
The margins, and the chance of meeting each rule, are on [the Budget page](/budget/#fiscal-rules).
The rules look five years ahead; the projections on this page look fifty.





## What economists and politicians say



- We stress that it is not plausible that the UK, or any other country, could remain on any of the unsustainable paths set out in these scenarios, because they imply that debt will ultimately grow explosively. Office for Budget Responsibility ([7 July 2026](https://obr.uk/frs/fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-july-2026/))
- The OBR’s projections are not a prediction but a warning. ICAEW Insights ([10 September 2026](https://www.icaew.com/insights/viewpoints-on-the-news/2026/sep-2026/chart-of-the-week-obr-long-term-fiscal-forecast))
- We have the right economic plan to deal with economic shocks. HM Treasury spokesperson, as reported by PA ([8 July 2026](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-debt-grow-explosively-not-102442965.html))





### What should be done about the long-term path for debt?





### Those who call for early action on borrowing



- It would be better to adjust taxes and spending in advance. Ruth Curtice, Resolution Foundation ([16 July 2026](https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/the-three-steps-needed-to-climb-out-of-the-uks-fiscal-hole/))
- the alternative is a larger adjustment scheduled for a politically difficult moment, when monetary space is uncertain and the probability of delivery may be low. David Aikman, National Institute of Economic and Social Research ([17 July 2026](https://niesr.ac.uk/blog/should-burnham-front-load-fiscal-squeeze))
- Loosening the rules in order to borrow significantly more would mean debt continuing to rise and would undermine the UK’s fiscal credibility. Helen Miller, Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies ([20 July 2026](https://ifs.org.uk/articles/actions-speak-louder-words))
- Only sustainably higher productivity can provide an off-ramp. David Bharier, British Chambers of Commerce ([8 July 2026](https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2026/07/obr-report-sets-out-stark-fiscal-challenge/))
- the longer action is delayed, the more it costs, and the greater the burden placed on future generations. Anne Strickland, TaxPayers’ Alliance ([31 July 2026](https://taxpayersalliance.com/data-decoded-july/))





### Those who put more weight on investment, growth or changing the fiscal rules



- Our current fiscal framework is not fit for purpose, and blind to the risks that decide long-term sustainability. William Ellis, IPPR ([13 August 2026](https://www.ippr.org/media-office/revealed-1-in-every-5-of-future-generations-taxes-set-to-go-on-debt-interest))
- Burnham’s government needs to replace our rigid debt and borrowing targets with a fiscal committee empowered to judge a sustainable range for borrowing based on the state of the economy, not an arbitrary five-year snapshot. Jaya Sood, New Economics Foundation ([31 July 2026](https://neweconomics.org/2026/07/burnhams-economic-transformation-will-depend-on-changing-our-fiscal-and-monetary-framework))
- the cost of government debt matters far more than the amount of debt itself Richard Murphy, Tax Research UK ([13 July 2026](https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2026/07/13/can-andy-burnham-rebuild-britain-if-the-obr-says-no/))






Views are attributed to the people and organisations named, with the date and a link to where they said it. This site takes no side.






## What these figures do and don't show



- Projections assume today’s policies continue for fifty years. Governments will change them; the OBR says the baseline path could not actually happen.
- Everything is a share of GDP, so it already allows for the economy growing.
- Small changes in assumptions about productivity, interest rates, migration or health move the projections a long way, as the scenarios show.
- Views are those of the people named, with dates; this site takes no side on what should be done.






## Sources for this page





| Source | Publisher | Figures as of | Updated | Licence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2026](https://obr.uk/frs/fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-july-2026/) | Office for Budget Responsibility | 7 July 2026 | annual | [Open Government Licence v3.0](https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/) |





Each source's figures are used under the licence shown. Our own words, analysis, charts and derived calculations
are ours, under [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

## Related pages

- [Next in this section: The welfare bill: where it is forecast to go, and why](https://whereyourmoneygoes.co.uk/welfare-spending-forecast/)
- [Is the UK tax burden the highest it has ever been?](https://whereyourmoneygoes.co.uk/the-tax-burden/)
- [What is the electric car pay-per-mile tax, and what happens to fuel duty?](https://whereyourmoneygoes.co.uk/ev-pay-per-mile-tax/)
- [What is the UK fuel duty rate, and how did it get there?](https://whereyourmoneygoes.co.uk/fuel-duty/)

## More from this publisher

- [UK tax calculators](https://howlongisit.co.uk)

Published by [Tekstak Ltd](https://tek-stak.co.uk). Our words, analysis, charts and derived calculations: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), credit [Tekstak Ltd](https://tek-stak.co.uk). The figures belong to the publishers listed under Sources and are used under their licences. Figures last updated 29 September 2026.