In this section: Public finances

Budget 2026: 28 October 2026

Last updated 29 September 2026. Figures refresh every night. How each figure is worked out.

Budget 2026 is on 28 October 2026. The Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its forecast the same day. The last fiscal event was Spring Forecast 2026 on 3 March 2026. The latest Treasury documents are Supporting documents for Budget 2025.

Figure as of 26 November 2025. Source: HM Treasury.

Key figures

28 Oct 2026Budget 2026 OBR forecast the same day
3Announced changes the Budget still has to set or cost
13Changes already due to start within a year of it
£21.7bnMargin against the current budget rule at the last assessment November 2025 As of 26 November 2025

Source: Office for Budget Responsibility.

Fiscal events: past and next

30 Oct 2024Autumn Budget 2024
26 Mar 2025Spring Statement 2025
26 Nov 2025Budget 2025
3 Mar 2026Spring Forecast 2026. An OBR forecast and a statement. The Treasury published no scorecard; its measures are in the OBR's policy measures database.
28 Oct 2026Budget 2026 (scheduled). Date set in the Chancellor's letter to the Treasury Committee of 31 July 2026. The OBR publishes its forecast the same day.

What Budget 2026 has to decide

Some announced changes are waiting on the next Budget: rates not yet set, or measures announced between fiscal events that the OBR has not yet certified.

Announced changes the next Budget sets or costs

Fuel duty: the 5p cut ends

Starts
1 Jan 2027

The May 2026 extension to 31 December 2026 has not yet been costed; the Treasury says final rates and costings come at Budget 2026.
Extra business rates cut for pubs, clubs and live music venues

Starts
1 Apr 2027

The government says around £100 million a year and that a typical pub saves about £1,100. Not yet certified by the OBR.
State Pension rise under the triple lock

Starts
6 Apr 2027

The rise is part of the OBR's forecast rather than a scored policy decision. The rate is not yet known.

The fiscal rules going in

Since 2026 the OBR assesses the government’s fiscal rules once a year, at the Budget. The table shows the margin by which the latest forecast met each rule at its last assessment: a larger margin gives the Chancellor more room before a rule would be broken. The OBR’s newest forecast (March 2026) did not re-assess the rules.

The fiscal rules at the OBR’s last assessment (November 2025)
Rule and forecast	Margin, £bn	Margin, % of GDP	Chance of meeting it
Current budget to be in surplus: March 2025 forecast Details for Current budget to be in surplus: March 2025 forecast	£9.9bn	0.28%	54%
Margin, % of GDP 0.28% Chance of meeting it 54%
Current budget to be in surplus: November 2025 pre-measures forecast Details for Current budget to be in surplus: November 2025 pre-measures forecast	£4.2bn	0.12%	52%
Margin, % of GDP 0.12% Chance of meeting it 52%
Current budget to be in surplus: November 2025 forecast Details for Current budget to be in surplus: November 2025 forecast	£21.7bn	0.62%	59%
Margin, % of GDP 0.62% Chance of meeting it 59%
Current budget to be in surplus: Memo: excluding fuel duty rises Details for Current budget to be in surplus: Memo: excluding fuel duty rises	£17.8bn	0.51%	—
Margin, % of GDP 0.51% Chance of meeting it —
Change in public sector net financial liabilities: March 2025 forecast Details for Change in public sector net financial liabilities: March 2025 forecast	£15.1bn	0.42%	51%
Margin, % of GDP 0.42% Chance of meeting it 51%
Change in public sector net financial liabilities: November 2025 pre-measures forecast Details for Change in public sector net financial liabilities: November 2025 pre-measures forecast	£11.1bn	0.31%	51%
Margin, % of GDP 0.31% Chance of meeting it 51%
Change in public sector net financial liabilities: November 2025 forecast Details for Change in public sector net financial liabilities: November 2025 forecast	£24.4bn	0.68%	52%
Margin, % of GDP 0.68% Chance of meeting it 52%
Change in public sector net financial liabilities: Memo: excluding fuel duty rises Details for Change in public sector net financial liabilities: Memo: excluding fuel duty rises	£20.7bn	0.58%	—
Margin, % of GDP 0.58% Chance of meeting it —
Welfare cap: specified welfare spending: March 2025 forecast Details for Welfare cap: specified welfare spending: March 2025 forecast	£13.5bn	—	—
Margin, % of GDP — Chance of meeting it —
Welfare cap: specified welfare spending: November 2025 forecast Details for Welfare cap: specified welfare spending: November 2025 forecast	£1.9bn	—	—
Margin, % of GDP — Chance of meeting it —

Forecast: Office for Budget Responsibility, Economic and fiscal outlook, November 2025, published 26 November 2025

What happens to this site on Budget day

On the day, the Treasury publishes its scorecard and costings, and the OBR its forecast and policy measures database. The nightly update reads the OBR files and the Treasury’s supporting documents: the welfare forecast gains a new edition, the older one is labelled superseded, the long-term and tax pages move to the new forecast, and every new measure appears in the scorecard table. Measures with a start date are then added to the dated list by hand, each with its source.

What is read after a fiscal event, and where from
What	Publisher	When it updates here
Every scored measure and its costing	OBR policy measures database	The night it is published
Welfare spending forecast	OBR Economic and fiscal outlook	The night after the Budget
Fiscal rules and headroom	OBR Economic and fiscal outlook	The night after the Budget
Dated list of changes	Treasury documents and HMRC impact notes	Checked by hand

What these figures do and don't show

A fiscal event can change any announced measure, including ones already legislated.
Headroom is measured against a forecast. The OBR publishes the probability of meeting each rule because small changes in the economy move the margin by billions.
Changes announced between Budgets are shown with the government’s own estimate until the OBR certifies a costing.

Sources for this page

Source	Publisher	Figures as of	Updated	Licence
Budget 2025: supporting documents (Table 4.1 policy decisions, Table 4.2, Policy costings)	HM Treasury	26 November 2025	annual	Open Government Licence v3.0
Economic and fiscal outlook, November 2025: performance against the fiscal rules	Office for Budget Responsibility	26 November 2025	annual	Open Government Licence v3.0

Each source's figures are used under the licence shown. Our own words, analysis, charts and derived calculations are ours, under CC BY 4.0.