In this section: Public finances
Longer-term pressures: spending, tax and debt over fifty years
Last updated . Figures refresh every night. How each figure is worked out.
In the Office for Budget Responsibility’s latest projections (July 2026), public sector net debt rises from about 95% of GDP in 2030-31 to about 300% in 2075-76 if today’s policies were kept unchanged, as spending on health, pensions and debt interest grows faster than tax receipts (primary spending 41% to 49% of GDP). The OBR says such a path could not actually happen: it shows the size of the pressure, not a prediction.
Figure as of 7 July 2026. Source: Office for Budget Responsibility.
Key figures
- 300%Net debt, % of GDP, 2075-76 (projection) OBR, July 2026
- 12.2%Net debt interest, % of GDP, 2075-76 (projection)
- 13.5%Health spending, % of GDP, 2075-76 (projection)
- 8.6%State Pension, % of GDP, 2075-76 (projection)
Source: Office for Budget Responsibility.
What is the short version?
- Forecast, projection, scenario, commentary: this page uses all four and labels each. Only the first five years are a forecast.
- The projections assume nothing changes for fifty years. They show where pressures build, not what will happen.
- The pressures are ageing, health, pensions and debt interest, and fuel duty disappearing as cars go electric.
- Economists disagree on how soon to act and on whether the fiscal rules are the right tool; named views are below.
Forecast, projection, scenario or commentary
The four kinds of figure on this page
-
Forecast
- Who makes it
- The OBR, twice a year
The expected path over the next five years, given current policy and the economy.
-
Projection
- Who makes it
- The OBR, once a year
Where current policy would lead over fifty years if nothing changed. Not expected to happen.
-
Scenario
- Who makes it
- The OBR
A projection with one assumption changed, such as higher productivity or a different pension rule.
-
Commentary
- Who makes it
- Named sources, quoted with dates
What an economist, think tank or politician thinks the figures mean.
Projection: Office for Budget Responsibility, Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2026, published 7 July 2026
Debt over fifty years
Every line is a projection, not a forecast. Scenarios change one assumption at a time. The OBR also publishes scenarios with higher borrowing and market shocks, which rise much further; they are in the table below the chart.
The numbers behind this chart
| Year | Baseline projection | Scenario: Higher medium-term primary deficit | Scenario: Higher population | Scenario: Higher productivity | Scenario: Lower productivity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025-26Details for 2025-26 | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
| |||||
2026-27Details for 2026-27 | 95% | 96% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| |||||
2027-28Details for 2027-28 | 96% | 98% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
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2028-29Details for 2028-29 | 96% | 100% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
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2029-30Details for 2029-30 | 96% | 102% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
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2030-31Details for 2030-31 | 95% | 103% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
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2031-32Details for 2031-32 | 95% | 105% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
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2032-33Details for 2032-33 | 95% | 108% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
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2033-34Details for 2033-34 | 95% | 112% | 95% | 95% | 96% |
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2034-35Details for 2034-35 | 96% | 116% | 96% | 96% | 98% |
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2035-36Details for 2035-36 | 98% | 120% | 98% | 97% | 100% |
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2036-37Details for 2036-37 | 99% | 125% | 99% | 98% | 102% |
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2037-38Details for 2037-38 | 101% | 130% | 101% | 99% | 105% |
| |||||
2038-39Details for 2038-39 | 102% | 135% | 102% | 100% | 109% |
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2039-40Details for 2039-40 | 104% | 140% | 104% | 101% | 112% |
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2040-41Details for 2040-41 | 106% | 145% | 106% | 102% | 117% |
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2041-42Details for 2041-42 | 108% | 151% | 109% | 103% | 122% |
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2042-43Details for 2042-43 | 110% | 156% | 111% | 104% | 127% |
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2043-44Details for 2043-44 | 112% | 162% | 114% | 104% | 133% |
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2044-45Details for 2044-45 | 115% | 169% | 117% | 105% | 139% |
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2045-46Details for 2045-46 | 117% | 175% | 120% | 106% | 146% |
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2046-47Details for 2046-47 | 120% | 181% | 123% | 107% | 154% |
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2047-48Details for 2047-48 | 123% | 188% | 127% | 108% | 162% |
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2048-49Details for 2048-49 | 126% | 195% | 131% | 109% | 170% |
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2049-50Details for 2049-50 | 129% | 202% | 135% | 110% | 180% |
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2050-51Details for 2050-51 | 133% | 210% | 140% | 112% | 190% |
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2051-52Details for 2051-52 | 137% | 218% | 144% | 113% | 201% |
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2052-53Details for 2052-53 | 141% | 226% | 149% | 114% | 212% |
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2053-54Details for 2053-54 | 145% | 234% | 155% | 116% | 224% |
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2054-55Details for 2054-55 | 149% | 242% | 160% | 118% | 237% |
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2055-56Details for 2055-56 | 154% | 251% | 166% | 119% | 251% |
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2056-57Details for 2056-57 | 159% | 260% | 173% | 121% | 265% |
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2057-58Details for 2057-58 | 164% | 270% | 179% | 123% | 281% |
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2058-59Details for 2058-59 | 170% | 280% | 186% | 126% | 297% |
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2059-60Details for 2059-60 | 175% | 290% | 193% | 128% | 314% |
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2060-61Details for 2060-61 | 181% | 300% | 201% | 130% | 331% |
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2061-62Details for 2061-62 | 187% | 310% | 209% | 133% | 350% |
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2062-63Details for 2062-63 | 194% | 321% | 217% | 135% | 369% |
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2063-64Details for 2063-64 | 201% | 332% | 225% | 138% | 390% |
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2064-65Details for 2064-65 | 208% | 344% | 233% | 141% | 411% |
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2065-66Details for 2065-66 | 215% | 356% | 242% | 144% | 433% |
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2066-67Details for 2066-67 | 222% | 367% | 251% | 147% | 456% |
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2067-68Details for 2067-68 | 230% | 380% | 260% | 151% | 480% |
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2068-69Details for 2068-69 | 238% | 392% | 269% | 154% | 505% |
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2069-70Details for 2069-70 | 246% | 404% | 278% | 157% | 531% |
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2070-71Details for 2070-71 | 254% | 417% | 287% | 161% | 557% |
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2071-72Details for 2071-72 | 263% | 430% | 296% | 165% | 585% |
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2072-73Details for 2072-73 | 272% | 444% | 307% | 169% | 614% |
| |||||
2073-74Details for 2073-74 | 281% | 457% | 317% | 173% | 643% |
| |||||
2074-75Details for 2074-75 | 291% | 471% | 328% | 178% | 674% |
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2075-76Details for 2075-76 | 300% | 486% | 339% | 182% | 706% |
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| Scenario | Group | 2075-76 |
|---|---|---|
BaselineDetails for Baseline | debt dynamics scenarios | 300% |
| ||
Higher medium-term primary deficitDetails for Higher medium-term primary deficit | debt dynamics scenarios | 486% |
| ||
Higher medium-term primary deficit plus shocksDetails for Higher medium-term primary deficit plus shocks | debt dynamics scenarios | 536% |
| ||
Higher medium-term primary deficit, shocks and responsive interest rateDetails for Higher medium-term primary deficit, shocks and responsive interest rate | debt dynamics scenarios | 1,019% |
| ||
Higher populationDetails for Higher population | higher population scenario | 339% |
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Higher productivityDetails for Higher productivity | productivity scenarios | 182% |
| ||
Lower productivityDetails for Lower productivity | productivity scenarios | 706% |
| ||
Higher productivity with constant primary-spending-to-GDP assumptionDetails for Higher productivity with constant primary-spending-to-GDP assumption | productivity scenarios | 269% |
| ||
CPI uprating of personal tax thresholdsDetails for CPI uprating of personal tax thresholds | alternative long-term policy assumption scenarios | 152% |
| ||
No extra cost pressures in health spendingDetails for No extra cost pressures in health spending | alternative long-term policy assumption scenarios | 192% |
| ||
CPI uprating of non-state pension welfareDetails for CPI uprating of non-state pension welfare | alternative long-term policy assumption scenarios | 210% |
| ||
Earnings uprating of the state pensionDetails for Earnings uprating of the state pension | alternative long-term policy assumption scenarios | 260% |
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What drives it
The OBR breaks down the rise in borrowing between 2030-31 and 2075-76 in its baseline. Debt interest grows as debt grows; health and the State Pension grow with an older population.
| Item | 2025-26 | 2030-31 | 2075-76 |
|---|---|---|---|
HealthDetails for Health | 8.4% | 8.4% | 13.5% |
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Adult social careDetails for Adult social care | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% |
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EducationDetails for Education | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% |
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State pensionDetails for State pension | 4.8% | 5.0% | 8.6% |
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Other welfare benefitsDetails for Other welfare benefits | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% |
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Public service pensionsDetails for Public service pensions | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
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Total age-related spendingDetails for Total age-related spending | 26.3% | 26.2% | 34.6% |
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DefenceDetails for Defence | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% |
| |||
Net zero transition spendingDetails for Net zero transition spending | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
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Other currentDetails for Other current | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
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Other capitalDetails for Other capital | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
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Total primary spendingDetails for Total primary spending | 40.5% | 39.8% | 48.7% |
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The numbers behind this chart
| Year | Baseline | No extra cost pressures in health spending | Lower healthy life expectancy | Higher healthy life expectancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025-26Details for 2025-26 | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
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2026-27Details for 2026-27 | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
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2027-28Details for 2027-28 | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
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2028-29Details for 2028-29 | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
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2029-30Details for 2029-30 | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
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2030-31Details for 2030-31 | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
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2031-32Details for 2031-32 | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
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2032-33Details for 2032-33 | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% |
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2033-34Details for 2033-34 | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% |
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2034-35Details for 2034-35 | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% |
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2035-36Details for 2035-36 | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.8% |
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2036-37Details for 2036-37 | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% |
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2037-38Details for 2037-38 | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% |
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2038-39Details for 2038-39 | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% |
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2039-40Details for 2039-40 | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% |
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2040-41Details for 2040-41 | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.3% |
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2041-42Details for 2041-42 | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.3% |
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2042-43Details for 2042-43 | 9.7% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.4% |
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2043-44Details for 2043-44 | 9.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% |
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2044-45Details for 2044-45 | 10.0% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.6% |
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2045-46Details for 2045-46 | 10.1% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.7% |
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2046-47Details for 2046-47 | 10.2% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.8% |
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2047-48Details for 2047-48 | 10.3% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.8% |
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2048-49Details for 2048-49 | 10.4% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% |
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2049-50Details for 2049-50 | 10.5% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 10.0% |
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2050-51Details for 2050-51 | 10.6% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 10.1% |
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2051-52Details for 2051-52 | 10.7% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 10.1% |
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2052-53Details for 2052-53 | 10.9% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 10.2% |
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2053-54Details for 2053-54 | 11.0% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 10.3% |
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2054-55Details for 2054-55 | 11.1% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 10.4% |
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2055-56Details for 2055-56 | 11.2% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 10.4% |
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2056-57Details for 2056-57 | 11.3% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 10.5% |
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2057-58Details for 2057-58 | 11.4% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 10.6% |
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2058-59Details for 2058-59 | 11.5% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 10.6% |
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2059-60Details for 2059-60 | 11.6% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 10.7% |
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2060-61Details for 2060-61 | 11.7% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 10.8% |
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2061-62Details for 2061-62 | 11.8% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 10.8% |
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2062-63Details for 2062-63 | 11.9% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 10.9% |
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2063-64Details for 2063-64 | 12.0% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 11.0% |
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2064-65Details for 2064-65 | 12.1% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 11.0% |
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2065-66Details for 2065-66 | 12.2% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 11.1% |
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2066-67Details for 2066-67 | 12.3% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 11.2% |
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2067-68Details for 2067-68 | 12.5% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 11.3% |
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2068-69Details for 2068-69 | 12.6% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 11.3% |
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2069-70Details for 2069-70 | 12.7% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 11.4% |
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2070-71Details for 2070-71 | 12.8% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 11.5% |
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2071-72Details for 2071-72 | 13.0% | 8.8% | 14.5% | 11.6% |
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2072-73Details for 2072-73 | 13.1% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 11.7% |
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2073-74Details for 2073-74 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 11.7% |
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2074-75Details for 2074-75 | 13.3% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 11.8% |
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2075-76Details for 2075-76 | 13.5% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 11.9% |
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Projections. See also pay-per-mile for electric cars.
The numbers behind this chart
| Year | Fuel duty | eVED (CPI uprating) | eVED (earnings uprating) |
|---|---|---|---|
2025-26Details for 2025-26 | 0.79% | — | — |
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2026-27Details for 2026-27 | 0.78% | — | — |
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2027-28Details for 2027-28 | 0.81% | — | — |
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2028-29Details for 2028-29 | 0.79% | 0.04% | 0.04% |
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2029-30Details for 2029-30 | 0.75% | 0.04% | 0.04% |
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2030-31Details for 2030-31 | 0.71% | 0.06% | 0.06% |
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2031-32Details for 2031-32 | 0.63% | 0.06% | 0.07% |
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2032-33Details for 2032-33 | 0.57% | 0.07% | 0.08% |
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2033-34Details for 2033-34 | 0.51% | 0.08% | 0.09% |
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2034-35Details for 2034-35 | 0.46% | 0.09% | 0.10% |
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2035-36Details for 2035-36 | 0.42% | 0.10% | 0.11% |
| |||
2036-37Details for 2036-37 | 0.36% | 0.11% | 0.12% |
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2037-38Details for 2037-38 | 0.32% | 0.11% | 0.13% |
| |||
2038-39Details for 2038-39 | 0.29% | 0.12% | 0.14% |
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2039-40Details for 2039-40 | 0.26% | 0.13% | 0.14% |
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2040-41Details for 2040-41 | 0.24% | 0.13% | 0.15% |
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2041-42Details for 2041-42 | 0.22% | 0.13% | 0.16% |
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2042-43Details for 2042-43 | 0.20% | 0.14% | 0.17% |
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2043-44Details for 2043-44 | 0.18% | 0.14% | 0.17% |
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2044-45Details for 2044-45 | 0.17% | 0.14% | 0.18% |
| |||
2045-46Details for 2045-46 | 0.15% | 0.14% | 0.18% |
| |||
2046-47Details for 2046-47 | 0.13% | 0.14% | 0.19% |
| |||
2047-48Details for 2047-48 | 0.12% | 0.14% | 0.19% |
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2048-49Details for 2048-49 | 0.10% | 0.14% | 0.19% |
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2049-50Details for 2049-50 | 0.09% | 0.14% | 0.19% |
| |||
2050-51Details for 2050-51 | 0.08% | 0.14% | 0.20% |
| |||
2051-52Details for 2051-52 | 0.07% | 0.14% | 0.20% |
| |||
2052-53Details for 2052-53 | 0.06% | 0.14% | 0.20% |
| |||
2053-54Details for 2053-54 | 0.05% | 0.14% | 0.20% |
| |||
2054-55Details for 2054-55 | 0.05% | 0.14% | 0.21% |
| |||
2055-56Details for 2055-56 | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.21% |
| |||
2056-57Details for 2056-57 | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.21% |
| |||
2057-58Details for 2057-58 | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.21% |
| |||
2058-59Details for 2058-59 | 0.02% | 0.15% | 0.22% |
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2059-60Details for 2059-60 | 0.01% | 0.15% | 0.22% |
| |||
2060-61Details for 2060-61 | 0.01% | 0.15% | 0.22% |
| |||
2061-62Details for 2061-62 | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.22% |
| |||
2062-63Details for 2062-63 | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.22% |
| |||
2063-64Details for 2063-64 | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.22% |
| |||
2064-65Details for 2064-65 | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.22% |
| |||
2065-66Details for 2065-66 | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| |||
2066-67Details for 2066-67 | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| |||
2067-68Details for 2067-68 | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| |||
2068-69Details for 2068-69 | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| |||
2069-70Details for 2069-70 | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| |||
2070-71Details for 2070-71 | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| |||
2071-72Details for 2071-72 | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| |||
2072-73Details for 2072-73 | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| |||
2073-74Details for 2073-74 | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| |||
2074-75Details for 2074-75 | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| |||
2075-76Details for 2075-76 | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.23% |
| |||
| Item | 2025-26 | 2030-31 | 2075-76 |
|---|---|---|---|
Income taxDetails for Income tax | 10.9% | 11.9% | 12.1% |
| |||
NICsDetails for NICs | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% |
| |||
VATDetails for VAT | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% |
| |||
Corporation taxDetails for Corporation tax | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| |||
Capital taxesDetails for Capital taxes | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% |
| |||
Net zero-affected taxesDetails for Net zero-affected taxes | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| |||
Other receiptsDetails for Other receipts | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| |||
Total primary receiptsDetails for Total primary receipts | 39.1% | 41.3% | 41.3% |
| |||
Interest and dividendsDetails for Interest and dividends | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| |||
Total receiptsDetails for Total receipts | 40.4% | 42.7% | 42.7% |
| |||
The fiscal rules and the headroom against them
At its last assessment (November 2025, 26 November 2025), the OBR found the government met its rule to balance day-to-day spending by £21.7bn. The margins, and the chance of meeting each rule, are on the Budget page. The rules look five years ahead; the projections on this page look fifty.
What economists and politicians say
We stress that it is not plausible that the UK, or any other country, could remain on any of the unsustainable paths set out in these scenarios, because they imply that debt will ultimately grow explosively.
Office for Budget Responsibility (7 July 2026)The OBR’s projections are not a prediction but a warning.
ICAEW Insights (10 September 2026)We have the right economic plan to deal with economic shocks.
HM Treasury spokesperson, as reported by PA (8 July 2026)
What should be done about the long-term path for debt?
Those who call for early action on borrowing
It would be better to adjust taxes and spending in advance.
Ruth Curtice, Resolution Foundation (16 July 2026)the alternative is a larger adjustment scheduled for a politically difficult moment, when monetary space is uncertain and the probability of delivery may be low.
David Aikman, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (17 July 2026)Loosening the rules in order to borrow significantly more would mean debt continuing to rise and would undermine the UK’s fiscal credibility.
Helen Miller, Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies (20 July 2026)Only sustainably higher productivity can provide an off-ramp.
David Bharier, British Chambers of Commerce (8 July 2026)the longer action is delayed, the more it costs, and the greater the burden placed on future generations.
Anne Strickland, TaxPayers’ Alliance (31 July 2026)
Those who put more weight on investment, growth or changing the fiscal rules
Our current fiscal framework is not fit for purpose, and blind to the risks that decide long-term sustainability.
William Ellis, IPPR (13 August 2026)Burnham’s government needs to replace our rigid debt and borrowing targets with a fiscal committee empowered to judge a sustainable range for borrowing based on the state of the economy, not an arbitrary five-year snapshot.
Jaya Sood, New Economics Foundation (31 July 2026)the cost of government debt matters far more than the amount of debt itself
Richard Murphy, Tax Research UK (13 July 2026)
Views are attributed to the people and organisations named, with the date and a link to where they said it. This site takes no side.
What these figures do and don't show
- Projections assume today’s policies continue for fifty years. Governments will change them; the OBR says the baseline path could not actually happen.
- Everything is a share of GDP, so it already allows for the economy growing.
- Small changes in assumptions about productivity, interest rates, migration or health move the projections a long way, as the scenarios show.
- Views are those of the people named, with dates; this site takes no side on what should be done.
Sources for this page
| Source | Publisher | Figures as of | Updated | Licence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2026 | Office for Budget Responsibility | 7 July 2026 | annual | Open Government Licence v3.0 |
Each source's figures are used under the licence shown. Our own words, analysis, charts and derived calculations are ours, under CC BY 4.0.