In this section: Public finances
The welfare bill: where it is forecast to go, and why
Last updated . Figures refresh every night. How each figure is worked out.
The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts UK welfare spending of £406.9bn in 2030-31, up from £314.8bn in 2024-25, or 11.2% of GDP against 10.7%. The State Pension is the largest part (£180.7bn); health and disability benefits are forecast to reach £109.8bn. These are forecasts from the OBR’s March 2026 edition, published 3 March 2026; they change with each new forecast.
Figure as of 3 March 2026. Source: Office for Budget Responsibility.
Key figures
- £406.9bnWelfare spending, 2030-31 (forecast) OBR, March 2026
- 11.2%Of GDP, 2030-31 (forecast)
- £180.7bnState Pension, 2030-31 (forecast)
- £109.8bnHealth and disability benefits, 2030-31 (forecast)
- £373.4bn to £389.9bnForecasts for 2029-30 across the last 4 OBR editions
Source: Office for Budget Responsibility.
What is the short version?
- Forecasts, not facts: every figure after the first year or two is the OBR’s forecast from its March 2026 edition, and each edition moves it.
- Most of the money goes to pensioners: the State Pension and other pensioner benefits are the largest part, and are outside the welfare cap.
- Health and disability benefits are the fastest-growing part of working-age spending in the OBR’s forecast.
- Views differ on whether the rise is a problem and what to do about it; named voices on each side are below.
The forecast, by group
Forecast: Office for Budget Responsibility, Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2026, published 3 March 2026
Figures from 2025-26 are forecasts. Pensioner spending includes the State Pension, Pension Credit and pensioners’ disability and housing benefits.
The numbers behind this chart
| Year | Pensioner spending | UC and legacy equivalents | Disability benefits | Child benefit | Other spending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024-25Details for 2024-25 | £151.0bn | £89.2bn | £41.4bn | £13.3bn | £19.8bn |
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2025-26Details for 2025-26 | £161.2bn | £91.9bn | £45.4bn | £13.4bn | £21.0bn |
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2026-27Details for 2026-27 | £169.2bn | £97.8bn | £50.2bn | £13.7bn | £21.8bn |
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2027-28Details for 2027-28 | £173.9bn | £98.9bn | £53.8bn | £13.8bn | £22.7bn |
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2028-29Details for 2028-29 | £178.9bn | £100.3bn | £57.3bn | £13.9bn | £23.4bn |
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2029-30Details for 2029-30 | £187.5bn | £103.1bn | £61.1bn | £13.9bn | £24.3bn |
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2030-31Details for 2030-31 | £196.2bn | £106.2bn | £65.5bn | £14.0bn | £25.2bn |
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Figure as of 3 March 2026. Source: Office for Budget Responsibility.
| Benefit | 2024-25 | 2030-31 | Inside the welfare cap? |
|---|---|---|---|
State pensionDetails for State pension | £138.0bn | £180.7bn | No |
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Universal creditDetails for Universal credit | £52.8bn | £81.5bn | Yes |
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Disability living allowance and personal independence paymentsDetails for Disability living allowance and personal independence payments | £33.7bn | £54.4bn | Yes |
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Child benefitDetails for Child benefit | £13.3bn | £14.0bn | Yes |
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Universal creditDetails for Universal credit | £13.5bn | £13.4bn | No |
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Housing benefit (not on JSA)Details for Housing benefit (not on JSA) | £14.6bn | £13.4bn | Yes |
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Attendance allowanceDetails for Attendance allowance | £7.8bn | £11.1bn | Yes |
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NI social security in welfare capDetails for NI social security in welfare cap | £5.7bn | £7.1bn | Yes |
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Carer's allowanceDetails for Carer's allowance | £4.2bn | £6.3bn | Yes |
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Pension creditDetails for Pension credit | £6.0bn | £5.8bn | Yes |
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NI social security outside welfare capDetails for NI social security outside welfare cap | £4.0bn | £5.5bn | No |
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Incapacity benefitsDetails for Incapacity benefits | £12.4bn | £5.2bn | Yes |
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Statutory maternity payDetails for Statutory maternity pay | £3.1bn | £3.7bn | Yes |
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Winter fuel paymentDetails for Winter fuel payment | £0.3bn | £2.0bn | Yes |
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Other DWP in welfare capDetails for Other DWP in welfare cap | £2.0bn | £1.9bn | Yes |
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Source: Office for Budget Responsibility, Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2026: detailed forecast tables, expenditure, published 3 March 2026.
How the forecast has moved
The OBR forecasts welfare spending twice a year. Each new edition takes in new data, new policy and new assumptions, so the path moves. The chart shows every edition since October 2024; the older ones are labelled superseded.
Each line is a separate OBR forecast; only the newest is current. The spread between them shows how much the forecast has moved, not a statistical range.
The numbers behind this chart
| Year | March 2026 (latest) | November 2025 (superseded) | March 2025 (superseded) | October 2024 (superseded) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2023-24Details for 2023-24 | — | — | £296.4bn | £296.3bn |
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2024-25Details for 2024-25 | £314.8bn | £314.7bn | £313.0bn | £313.6bn |
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2025-26Details for 2025-26 | £332.9bn | £333.0bn | £326.1bn | £327.5bn |
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2026-27Details for 2026-27 | £352.8bn | £351.9bn | £342.1bn | £340.5bn |
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2027-28Details for 2027-28 | £363.1bn | £362.1bn | £348.8bn | £349.5bn |
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2028-29Details for 2028-29 | £373.8bn | £372.9bn | £358.5bn | £361.4bn |
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2029-30Details for 2029-30 | £389.9bn | £389.4bn | £373.4bn | £377.7bn |
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2030-31Details for 2030-31 | £406.9bn | £406.2bn | — | — |
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Figure as of 3 March 2026. Source: Office for Budget Responsibility, Office for Budget Responsibility, Office for Budget Responsibility, Office for Budget Responsibility.
What drives it
Ageing and the triple lock
More people over State Pension age, and a pension that rises each year by the highest of inflation, earnings growth or 2.5%, push pensioner spending up. The OBR’s long-term projections show how much the uprating rule matters over fifty years.
Projections from Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2026: what happens if each rule is kept for fifty years, on the OBR’s assumptions. They are scenarios, not forecasts.
The numbers behind this chart
| Year | Baseline projection, triple lock uprating | CPI uprating | Average earnings uprating |
|---|---|---|---|
2025-26Details for 2025-26 | — | — | — |
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2026-27Details for 2026-27 | — | — | — |
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2027-28Details for 2027-28 | — | — | — |
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2028-29Details for 2028-29 | — | — | — |
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2029-30Details for 2029-30 | — | — | — |
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2030-31Details for 2030-31 | 4.98% | 4.98% | 4.98% |
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2031-32Details for 2031-32 | 5.04% | 4.99% | 5.03% |
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2032-33Details for 2032-33 | 5.13% | 5.01% | 5.10% |
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2033-34Details for 2033-34 | 5.23% | 5.01% | 5.17% |
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2034-35Details for 2034-35 | 5.33% | 5.01% | 5.25% |
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2035-36Details for 2035-36 | 5.43% | 5.00% | 5.31% |
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2036-37Details for 2036-37 | 5.51% | 4.97% | 5.36% |
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2037-38Details for 2037-38 | 5.50% | 4.86% | 5.33% |
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2038-39Details for 2038-39 | 5.43% | 4.70% | 5.23% |
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2039-40Details for 2039-40 | 5.44% | 4.60% | 5.21% |
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2040-41Details for 2040-41 | 5.51% | 4.56% | 5.25% |
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2041-42Details for 2041-42 | 5.58% | 4.52% | 5.28% |
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2042-43Details for 2042-43 | 5.63% | 4.46% | 5.31% |
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2043-44Details for 2043-44 | 5.69% | 4.40% | 5.33% |
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2044-45Details for 2044-45 | 5.74% | 4.34% | 5.35% |
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2045-46Details for 2045-46 | 5.78% | 4.28% | 5.36% |
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2046-47Details for 2046-47 | 5.83% | 4.22% | 5.38% |
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2047-48Details for 2047-48 | 5.91% | 4.18% | 5.42% |
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2048-49Details for 2048-49 | 6.00% | 4.15% | 5.47% |
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2049-50Details for 2049-50 | 6.09% | 4.12% | 5.52% |
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2050-51Details for 2050-51 | 6.17% | 4.08% | 5.57% |
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2051-52Details for 2051-52 | 6.26% | 4.05% | 5.62% |
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2052-53Details for 2052-53 | 6.36% | 4.02% | 5.68% |
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2053-54Details for 2053-54 | 6.46% | 3.99% | 5.74% |
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2054-55Details for 2054-55 | 6.56% | 3.97% | 5.80% |
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2055-56Details for 2055-56 | 6.67% | 3.94% | 5.86% |
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2056-57Details for 2056-57 | 6.78% | 3.92% | 5.93% |
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2057-58Details for 2057-58 | 6.90% | 3.90% | 6.00% |
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2058-59Details for 2058-59 | 7.02% | 3.88% | 6.07% |
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2059-60Details for 2059-60 | 7.14% | 3.86% | 6.14% |
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2060-61Details for 2060-61 | 7.26% | 3.84% | 6.21% |
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2061-62Details for 2061-62 | 7.38% | 3.82% | 6.28% |
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2062-63Details for 2062-63 | 7.50% | 3.79% | 6.35% |
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2063-64Details for 2063-64 | 7.62% | 3.77% | 6.42% |
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2064-65Details for 2064-65 | 7.74% | 3.74% | 6.48% |
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2065-66Details for 2065-66 | 7.87% | 3.72% | 6.56% |
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2066-67Details for 2066-67 | 8.00% | 3.70% | 6.63% |
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2067-68Details for 2067-68 | 8.13% | 3.67% | 6.70% |
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2068-69Details for 2068-69 | 8.24% | 3.64% | 6.75% |
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2069-70Details for 2069-70 | 8.34% | 3.61% | 6.80% |
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2070-71Details for 2070-71 | 8.44% | 3.57% | 6.85% |
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2071-72Details for 2071-72 | 8.55% | 3.53% | 6.90% |
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2072-73Details for 2072-73 | 8.66% | 3.50% | 6.95% |
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2073-74Details for 2073-74 | 8.67% | 3.42% | 6.92% |
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2074-75Details for 2074-75 | 8.59% | 3.32% | 6.82% |
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2075-76Details for 2075-76 | 8.61% | 3.25% | 6.79% |
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Health and disability
Spending on health and disability benefits (Personal Independence Payment, the Universal Credit health element, Employment and Support Allowance and others) is forecast to rise faster than the rest of working-age welfare. The OBR puts the number of people receiving incapacity benefits (UC health element and ESA) at 3.4 million in 2024-25, forecast to reach 4 million; The OBR puts the number of people receiving disability benefits (PIP, DLA and Attendance Allowance) at 6.5 million in 2024-25, forecast to reach 8.8 million.
The numbers behind this chart
| Year | Children | Working-age | Pensioner |
|---|---|---|---|
2024-25Details for 2024-25 | £4.5bn | £22.8bn | £14.2bn |
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2025-26Details for 2025-26 | £5.3bn | £24.7bn | £15.3bn |
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2026-27Details for 2026-27 | £6.1bn | £27.8bn | £16.3bn |
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2027-28Details for 2027-28 | £6.7bn | £30.4bn | £16.7bn |
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2028-29Details for 2028-29 | £7.2bn | £32.7bn | £17.4bn |
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2029-30Details for 2029-30 | £7.8bn | £34.9bn | £18.5bn |
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2030-31Details for 2030-31 | £8.3bn | £37.2bn | £20.0bn |
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Figure as of 3 March 2026. Source: Office for Budget Responsibility.
Caseloads are quoted from the text of the OBR’s Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2026; the current edition.
Housing costs
Help with rent comes through Housing Benefit and the housing element of Universal Credit. See what housing support costs and who receives it.
The welfare cap
The welfare cap limits most working-age and disability spending; the State Pension and the part of Universal Credit linked to unemployment are outside it. The OBR checks the forecast against the cap at its annual assessment of the fiscal rules.
| Forecast | Spending in the cap | Margin |
|---|---|---|
March 2025 forecastDetails for March 2025 forecast | £190.7bn | £13.5bn |
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November 2025 forecastDetails for November 2025 forecast | £202.3bn | £1.9bn |
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Announced reforms and claimed savings
Reforms and what was claimed for them
-
- Date
- 3 Sept 2025
What was claimed DWP's impact assessment puts the health element changes at a saving of £2,060 million in 2029-30 and the higher standard allowance at a cost of £1,850 million that year.
Details for Universal Credit Act 2025
Where it stands
In force from April 2026.
Independent assessments
Office for Budget Responsibility: The OBR's forecast includes the Act; Table 4.2 of Budget 2025 re-costs it at the time of that Budget. (source)
-
Personal Independence Payment eligibility changes (not proceeding)
- Date
- 26 Nov 2025
What was claimed The Spring Statement 2025 changes to PIP eligibility would have reduced spending by about £5.3 billion a year by 2030-31; at Budget 2025 the government confirmed they would not go ahead.
Details for Personal Independence Payment eligibility changes (not proceeding)
Where it stands
Withdrawn. A review of PIP (the Timms review) published an interim report on 9 July 2026 and is due to make final recommendations in autumn 2026.
Independent assessments
HM Treasury, Budget 2025 Table 4.1 line 83: Not proceeding costs £5,345 million in 2030-31 against the earlier plans. (source)
Changes still to start, including Universal Credit rates, are in every announced tax and benefit change.
What independent analysts and politicians say
Is the growth in welfare spending sustainable?
Those who say spending growth needs to be brought down
I am not squeamish about saying that the plan would be to reduce the welfare bill.
Andy Burnham, Prime Minister, HM Government (15 June 2026) From an interview with The Times, as quoted by Benefits and Work.Our constituents who need and rely on PIP should, and will, see their awards protected, but the system as a whole is not sustainable.
Nigel Farage and Robert Jenrick, Reform UK (16 August 2026)With millions of working-age people economically inactive and the cost of sickness and disability benefits continuing to soar, doing nothing is no longer an option.
Lord Hannan, Director-General, Institute of Economic Affairs (17 August 2026)We already spend more on health related benefits than the entire defence budget.
Joe Shalam, Policy Director, Centre for Social Justice (7 March 2026)The system is unsustainable and this threatens all the good it was designed to do.
Kemi Badenoch, Leader of the Opposition, Conservative Party (10 July 2025)
Those who say the rise reflects pensions and health, or that cuts would cause hardship
First, £21 billion of it comes from spending on pensioners, mostly because of the triple lock on the State Pension and the growing pensioner population.
Alex Clegg, Resolution Foundation (25 November 2025)Evidence from recent benefit cuts show they had little or no employment impacts, but worsened hardship and health, damaging future employment prospects and shifting costs elsewhere.
Iain Porter and Sam Tims, Joseph Rowntree Foundation (20 July 2026)At a time when society continues to be extremely inaccessible to us in terms of transport, housing, information and environment, and when public services are letting us down, PIP is an absolute lifeline.
Disability Rights UK (17 August 2026)Disability benefit cuts would only make life harder for these and many more families, undermining the government’s forthcoming child poverty strategy.
Alison Garnham, Chief Executive, Child Poverty Action Group (13 March 2025)
Views are attributed to the people and organisations named, with the date and a link to where they said it. This site takes no side.
What these figures do and don't show
- Forecasts are the OBR’s central forecasts, in cash terms. They are not targets and they move with every edition.
- The range across editions shows how much the forecast has changed, not the chance of any outcome.
- Long-term projections assume today’s policy continues for fifty years; they show pressures, not predictions.
- Figures are for the UK. The OBR forecasts spending, not the number of people who will claim; caseloads are quoted from its text.
Sources for this page
| Source | Publisher | Figures as of | Updated | Licence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2026: charts and tables, chapter 4 | Office for Budget Responsibility | 3 March 2026 | annual | Open Government Licence v3.0 |
| Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2026: detailed forecast tables, expenditure | Office for Budget Responsibility | 3 March 2026 | annual | Open Government Licence v3.0 |
| Economic and fiscal outlook, November 2025: detailed forecast tables, expenditure | Office for Budget Responsibility | 26 November 2025 | annual | Open Government Licence v3.0 |
| Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2025: detailed forecast tables, expenditure | Office for Budget Responsibility | 26 March 2025 | annual | Open Government Licence v3.0 |
| Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2024: detailed forecast tables, expenditure | Office for Budget Responsibility | 30 October 2024 | annual | Open Government Licence v3.0 |
Each source's figures are used under the licence shown. Our own words, analysis, charts and derived calculations are ours, under CC BY 4.0.